For the first time since the beginning of June, India is likely to register fewer than 50,000 new cases in the week (29 August-4 September), as the surge in infections seen from June to late July continues to decline for the sixth consecutive week, as according to TOI’s Covid database. The case count this week is likely to be close to 46,400, a 30% drop from the previous week’s total of 66,400. Such a steep drop in weekly numbers was last seen during the third wave pullback phase in February and March of this year.
Deaths from viruses are also likely to experience a 23% -25% drop from last week’s 277 toll after receiving data on Sunday from all states / UT, the sharpest decrease since mid-May.
The declining graph of infections in the country was also reflected in active cases as well as in the positivity rate. Active cases of the virus had dropped to around 51,000 by Sunday evening, down from nearly 69,000 on the same day last week. The seven-day mean test positive rate (TPR), a measure of the percentage of samples that tested positive, had dropped to 2.37% by Saturday, from 2.77% a week ago. The seven days TPR it is currently at its 83-day low.
All states and UT reported a decline in new cases from the previous week, with the only exception of Kerala. Sunday’s data for the southern state was not immediately available, but from the trend of the last few days it is likely that it will record an increase of around 15%. This would be the second consecutive week of cases on the rise in Kerala, which reported 7,863 new infections last week.
Maharashtra, which had the highest number of infections detected in the country in the previous week, experienced a steep 31% drop, with the case count falling from 12,101 to 8,370.
The decline was even more pronounced in Delhi, where the weekly case count fell 59%, from 4,821 to 1,997. This was the lowest weekly tally in the capital in five months from 4 to 10 April.
Kerala also reported the highest number of deaths from Covid, with 38 recorded during the week through Saturday. Maharashtra reported 35 deaths, one more than the previous week, while Delhi reported 19, down from 38 last week. These figures do not include deaths from previous periods added to the count in the data reconciliation exercises.
