Officials in the hardest-hit county of Lee, Florida, are facing mounting questions about why the first mandatory evacuations were only ordered a day before Hurricane Ian landfall, despite a contingency plan that suggests evacuations should have happened sooner.
Evacuation orders from Lee County also came a day or more after those from neighboring counties to the north.
The county’s comprehensive emergency management plan says a 10% chance of 6 feet or more of water would “indicate the need” for hurricane evacuations in the most vulnerable areas.
National Hurricane Center advisories, reviewed by CNN, first mention “4 to 7 feet surge” for this area as early as 11 p.m. ET Sunday – three days before landfall. This surge level was predicted for an area from Englewood to Bonita Beach – which includes the entire Lee County coastline.
At 8 a.m. ET Tuesday, around the time of the first evacuation message, the NHC raised the storm surge forecast to 5 to 10 feet. And as of 11 a.m. ET, the forecast was extended to 8 to 12 feet of storm surge for all of Lee County.
The county’s first announcement of mandatory evacuations did not come until Tuesday morning. At a news conference around 7 a.m. ET on Tuesday, county officials announced mandatory evacuations for the most vulnerable “Area A” and parts of the county’s “Area B”.
The county also opened its first shelters at 9 a.m. ET on Tuesday. Later that day, the county expanded the order to cover all of Area B.
Other counties in Ian’s path, such as Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota and Charlotte counties, spent the day Monday issuing evacuation orders. And even before Hillsborough County issued the official order, the mayor of Tampa was urging the public to evacuate.
“If you can leave, leave now, and we’ll take care of your personal belongings,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told Kate Bolduan on CNN’s At This Hour around 11 a.m. ET Monday.
GOP Sen. Rick Scott, pressed by CNN’s Dana Bash, declined to blame Lee County, saying, “We’ll find out and find out” if proper evacuation procedures were followed. “I think once we get through that, we’ll do an assessment. What I’ve always tried to do as governor is say, okay, so what have we learned in each of these cases.
Gov. Ron DeSantis and Lee County officials defended the county’s decision-making process, pointing to a shifting forecast path that shifted the worst impacts south closer to landfall.
At a news conference Monday, the day before the evacuation order was issued, Lee County Executive Roger Desjarlais dismissed the idea that Hurricane Ian had been harder to plan for than other storms. He said the fact that his county was in the predicted path of the storm’s center a few days prior suggested the storm would eventually move elsewhere.
“A few days ago, Fort Myers, Lee County, was right in the center of the cone of…uncertainty, and it really is the best place to be, three or four days away because the storm isn’t coming. will never behave that way.” said Desjarlais. “So those variables still exist, and we’re training and planning for any changes in storm characteristics.”
Desjarlais said Monday that while the county has yet to issue an evacuation order, residents should feel free to leave.
“If you’re feeling a little nervous about this storm and its effects, you can go now if you wish,” Desjarlais said. “So if you feel like it and you think it’s a good idea, now is a good time to hit the road and head to a safer part of the state.”
The delays were first reported by The New York Times, and Lee County Commissioner Kevin Ruane pushed back against the Times account in an interview with Boris Sanchez on CNN’s New Day Sunday, calling the report a ‘inaccurate’ and defending the calendar.
“Unfortunately people have become complacent,” Ruane said of why people may not have evacuated sooner. “As far as I’m concerned, the shelters were open, they had the capacity, they had all day Tuesday, they had a good chunk of Wednesday as the storm rolled in – they had the capacity to do that.”
And Fort Myers Mayor Kevin Anderson told CBS’ “Face the Nation” Sunday morning that “hurricane season warnings begin in June. And so, there is a degree of personal responsibility here. I think the county acted appropriately. The thing is, a certain percentage of people won’t heed the warnings anyway.
CNN’s Keith Allen and Andy Rose contributed to this report
