For more than 20 years, Democrats have been able to rely on New York, a bastion of liberal support in their war with the Republicans.
The state hasn’t elected a Republican senator or governor for two decades.
But as US midterms loom next week, their dominance is threatened.
As a sign that they are in trouble, the Democrats are enlisting in the bigger guns this weekend
In the final days of this election the Vice President, the President and both Clintons are among the party stars campaigning here.
The poll numbers are moving against them.
Their candidate for governor Kathy Hochul could be in trouble.
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But their problems run deeper.
New York is a steeple state.
If a red wave of Republican support occurs here, it is likely to repeat itself nationwide.
In the north, on the outskirts, there is a desire for change.
On the banks of the Hudson River, the prosperous and sleepy town of Nyack is not a republican stronghold, but people are not satisfied with the last two years of democratic rule.
“I haven’t really seen the left really doing anything,” waiter Maddux Cale told Sky News.
“I haven’t seen them come forward when they said they were going to take a step forward, and I haven’t seen them do anything that was actually effective in helping people.”
“Look at the inflation, look at the price of fuel,” said Mike Rail, sitting outside a bar on Main St.
“I mean, it’s out of control, so how can we not try anything else for two years? Just two years.”
Post-pandemic problems can penalize Democrats.
Inflation, the cost of living and rising crime are motivating voters.
On the downtown subway, New Yorkers told Sky News they were deeply concerned about their safety.
“Crime is definitely a problem – on trains and even in the suburbs,” said one commuter, refusing to give his name.
“I’ve been in New York for over 40 years and this is the first time I’m afraid of coming to Manhattan,” said a passenger.
“But it’s not just Manhattan.
“I live on Long Island, which was once safe is not safe.
“I’m just scared.”
He said he would still vote Democrat because he didn’t believe Republicans could do better.
But enough voters are thinking about supporting the Republicans to alarm the Democrats.
You would expect a solidly liberal crowd on a drag bingo night.
But among the players at the Wolf and Warrior Brewery in White Plains New York, a former Democrat told Sky News he would vote for Republicans.
“I actually voted for Bill Clinton, so I liked Bill Clinton.
“I thought it was good for the economy and good for the markets, and then after the last two years of seeing what’s going on with everything now, I think you have to go in a different direction.”
New York could change politically and that means problems nationwide.
If Republicans can do well here, they will do well across America, with all that that means for Joe Biden’s administration and party.