North Korea is waiting some time before conducting the seventh nuclear test, experts say


SEOUL, South Korea – Last week, North Korea fired at least 30 missiles and hundreds of artillery shells following threats from Pak Jong Chon, secretary of the Central Committee of the Korean Workers’ Party. He strongly condemned the joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, stating that “the United States and South Korea will learn what irrevocable and terrible mistake they have committed”. While many observers have tried to analyze his statement as a threat of a nuclear test, others believe North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is biding his time.

“I think Kim has kept a nuclear test at bay because he wants to take it to the United States and South Korea with a major Hwasong-17 ICBM test before stepping up further with a nuclear test,” Sung-Yoon Lee, professor at The Fletcher School of Tufts University, he told Fox News Digital.

Recalling the failure to impose new UN Security Council resolutions even after the North tested ICBMs this year, Lee added that the North Korean leader “has nothing to lose by taking his time and continuing its strategy of gradual escalation before giving its coup de grâce, a major nuclear test or even a series of tests. ”

Kim Jong Un oversees the launch of a missile in an unknown location in North Korea, in this photo published on October 9, 2022 by North Korea's Korea Central News Agency.

Kim Jong Un oversees the launch of a missile in an unknown location in North Korea, in this photo published on October 9, 2022 by North Korea’s Korea Central News Agency.
(KCNA via Reuters)

NORTH KOREA FIRE 4 BALLISTIC MISSILES LIKE US, SOUTH KOREA EXERCISES

While South Korea and the United States have reinvigorated their joint military exercises, including the latest “Vigilant Storm” air exercise, North Korea has regularly responded by firing ballistic missiles and firing artillery shells.

The North also launched a short-range ballistic missile towards Ulleung County in the south, the first missile launch across the southern Northern Limit Line – the de facto maritime border between the two Koreas – since the two Koreas joined. uniforms.

Seoul and Washington both condemned the Northern ballistic missile launches as a clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Furthermore, the Northern artillery fire is a violation of the military agreement signed by then South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un during the Pyongyang Summit in September 2018.

SOUTH KOREA SCRAMBLE JETS NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES 180 FLIGHTS TO THE BORDER

People stand next to a television screen showing footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, at Seoul train station, Aug.2, 2019.

People stand next to a television screen showing footage of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, at Seoul train station, Aug.2, 2019.
(AP Photo / Ahn Young-joon, File)

However, North Korea has shown no hesitation regarding its military provocations towards the South as China and Russia are expected to continue to use their vetoes on imposing new sanctions on the UN Security Council. Furthermore, the military agreement between the two Koreas proved ineffective in easing the growing tensions on the Korean peninsula.

In this context, North Korea has apparently stepped up its provocations towards South Korea and the United States, but has only launched ballistic missiles, including its Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), without showing any new moves on the its nuclear test.

Kim Jong Un promised to bolster his country’s nuclear capabilities in September, indicating that the North’s seventh nuclear test is imminent. North Korea has also codified a new law to legitimize the preventive use of nuclear weapons under certain conditions, reinforcing Kim’s plan to develop powerful tactical nuclear weapons that can be deployed with frontline units near the shared Korean border.

NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES ICBM TOWARDS JAPAN AFTER SHOOTING 23 MISSILES NEAR SOUTH KOREA; USA CONDEMN THE ‘VIOLATION’

An army tactical missile system missile is launched during a joint US-South Korea military exercise at an unknown location in South Korea, October 5, 2022.

An army tactical missile system missile is launched during a joint US-South Korea military exercise at an unknown location in South Korea, October 5, 2022.
(Ministry of Defense of South Korea via AP)

Along with Pyongyang’s efforts to restore its Punggye-ri nuclear site, which was captured by satellite images this year, Seoul and Washington have already said that Pyongyang appears to have completed preparations to carry out a nuclear test. The Seoul spy agency said the North could carry out a nuclear test between October 16 and November 7, a timeline set between the opening of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and the mid-term elections in United States on November 8.

As part of a five-year plan to modernize the country’s military and defense system – proposed during the Eighth Party Congress in January 2021 – some observers believe it’s only a matter of time before Kim Jong Un carries out a nuclear test. However, since North Korea did not conduct its test in the program suggested by the South Korean spy agency, it is unclear whether Kim will conduct one this year.

South Korea and the United States concluded six days of military exercises involving hundreds of military personnel on Saturday. The North said the drill was practical for a full-scale invasion.

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