Tight midterm margins in the United States, but the election seems not to be a triumph for the Republicans | American News



The expected wave of support for Donald Trump’s Republican Party has yet to materialize with many votes still uncounted.

His party had planned to take majority control of Congress, which would make it more difficult for the president Joe Biden govern, but the election hangs in the balance.

Republicans are expected to make the five wins required to take majority control of the House of Representatives, but Democratic fears of annihilation have been averted.

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Pre-election polls, pointing to 30 to 35 seats changing hands, have led some commentators to consider the possibility of a “wave” election with Democrats losing more than 40 seats. The average over the past century is a loss of 28 seats for the president’s party midterm and Democrats may well avoid even that outcome.

The Republican vote is up from the presidential election two years ago, but the swing since then has been 2-3%, which will limit the party’s ability to flip seats in states dominated by Democrats like New York and California.

NBC’s initial seat projection puts Republicans on 219 seats in the House, with a margin of plus or minus 13 seats. This points to a typical midterm election. Concerns that Mr Biden’s dismal personal approval rating, the worst of any modern president, would drag down his party seem unfounded.

The battle for the Senate, currently split 50-50, is expected to continue for some time to come. The Republicans needed a solitary win to take control, quite achievable if there was a large movement of voters towards their cause. New Hampshire was thought to be a Senate seat that could tip the scales, but Democratic incumbent Maggie Hassan is expected to remain in office.

In Georgia, where the 2020 Senate race was the last to be decided, another close finish is in prospect. Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican contender Herschel Walker are neck and neck, but crucially neither will win 50% of the vote, meaning a runoff is a real prospect.

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That brings three more Senate seats critical to whether Republicans succeed or fail in their bid to control both houses of Congress.

In Arizona, Republicans were hoping to depose incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly, but the vote tally currently shows him with a sizeable lead. The two remaining Senate seats, Nevada and Pennsylvania, could swing in opposite directions, meaning no effect on Senate control.

With nine out of 10 votes counted in Republican-held Pennsylvania, Democratic challenger John Fetterman holds a very narrow lead, but is expected to win the seat. This raises the bar for Republicans, meaning that instead of a single win, two wins are now required.

This makes Nevada particularly important to Republican aspirations. Catherine Cortez-Masto became the state’s first elected female senator in 2016. She is defending a narrow majority of less than thirty thousand votes and is vulnerable to a small swing to her Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt. If he succeeds, then the race in Georgia takes on enormous significance.

Whatever the result in the Senate, the general impression is a Republican victory that is far from a triumph. Donald Trump can still declare his intention to run for president in 2024, but Democrats will consider that performance almost a victory given their White House incumbent’s difficulty connecting with voters.

malek

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