Pakistan will choose new army chief: because India and the world will be watching closely


NEW DELHI: Pakistan is likely to see a new army chief later this month when General QJ Bajwa retires.
Such a transition, in most countries of the world, would not hog the headlines for months. But it’s a big deal in Pakistan, with likely repercussions in the immediate area and beyond.
Why is it a “big deal”?
The military, often called the “deep state” or “establishment”, is Pakistan’s most influential institution. It ruled the country for about 36 of its 75 years of existence.
It is widely accepted that no civilian government in Pakistan has survived without the blessing of the army.
Senior military officers are notorious for pulling the strings behind the scenes. The opinion and suggestions of army leaders have enormous weight in framing policies, including defense and foreign policies.
The new army chief could set the tone for the conduct of relations with India, the Taliban in Afghanistan, and determine whether Pakistan is more leaning towards China or the United States.
Because it matters nationally
The military has long been accused of manipulating the democratic process to maintain its dominance. Nineteen of Pakistan’s 30 prime ministers were elected, but none of them completed their five-year term.

Having recently admitted its past meddling in politics, the military has said it will no longer interfere. If the new leader keeps this commitment, he could be the key to Pakistan’s democratic evolution.
The incoming army chief could potentially play a key role in lowering the political temperature as Pakistan attempts to survive an economic crisis.
His approach to religious extremists, who exercise considerable influence in the political sphere, will also be interesting.
Why it matters to India
The role of Pakistan Army Chief could be significant in India-Pakistan relations, even in the more contentious issue of the two: Kashmir.
In early 2021, General Bajwa had sanctioned the restoration of a ceasefire agreement with India along the LoC.
Under Pak’s new army chief, will the international border and LoC be quiet or disturbed? Will the infiltration of terrorists across the border see a bump or a dip? Will Islamabad’s attempts to stir up unrest in the Valley see a change?
Will bilateral trade see a recovery?
How will India’s engagements with Afghanistan’s Taliban play out given the perceived influence of Pakistan’s military and intelligence in that country?
The new head of Rawalpindi will be part of most of these.
How is Pak’s army chief chosen?
According to Article 243(3) of the Pakistani constitution, the president appoints the heads of services on the recommendation of the prime minister.
Tradition has it that the General Command sends a list of the four to five most senior lieutenant generals, together with their personnel files, to the Ministry of Defence, which then forwards them to the PM to choose the officer it deems most suitable for the role.
The credentials of the generals are then deliberated at the PMO or Cabinet. The matter boils down to the prime minister’s “informal consultation” with the outgoing army chief, his perceptions and discussions with his closest advisers.
Who could take Gen Bajwa’s place?
Six names are believed to be in the showdown for Gen Bajwa’s successor: Lieutenant General Asim Munir, Lieutenant General Sahir Shamshad Mirza, Lieutenant General Azhar Abbas, Lieutenant General Nauman Mehmood, Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid and Lieutenant General Mohammad Amir.

Pack.

Prime Minister Sharif and Imran both want their own way
The Pakistani government is seeking to amend a 1952 law to have more authority over the appointment and retention of the army chief, Pakistani media reported earlier this week.
The envisaged amendment would authorize the prime minister to keep an army chief in office with a simple notification rather than through a complex constitutional process that also requires the president’s consent.
Even Imran is not sitting on his hands. He had a proposal for Shehbaz Sharif, which the prime minister reportedly rejected.
“Imran had suggested giving him three names and he gives three names for the post of army chief and then we decide on appointing the new chief from those six names,” The Express Tribune quoted the Pakistani prime minister as saying.
“If there is a common name in both lists then we will agree,” said Sharif, adding, however, “I flatly rejected Imran Khan’s offer saying thank you.”
Because the world will be watching closely
The Pakistani army chief will play a key role in addressing potential instability and friction with Afghanistan on its western frontier.
The security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which includes long-range missiles, has often been questioned.
Pakistan and its military have rejected foreign concerns about the command, control and security of its nuclear weapons. Fears of extremist elements infiltrating the ranks of its military and security establishment have not been reassuring.
Gen Bajwa’s successor will once again have to reassure the world once he takes office. The country that comes off the FATF gray list might just make things a little easier.
The Legacy of Gen Bajwa
Appointed chief in 2016, Bajwa has sought to balance ties with China and the United States. As Islamabad moved closer to Beijing, Bajwa was also working to loosen ties with Washington.
He made highly publicized visits to Beijing and the Middle East, helping secure financial assistance for Pakistan. He also lobbied Washington to help strike a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
He even summoned top Pakistani industrialists to a meeting at the army headquarters to encourage them to pay more taxes.
Nationwide, Bajwa has been accused of political meddling. Politicians said they helped Imran Khan become prime minister in 2018. In a turnaround earlier this year, Khan accused Bajwa of playing a role in his downfall.



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