Using its proprietary ranking system and a complex formula that takes into account team strength, location and history, Gracenote said the chances of 51st-placed Saudi Arabia beating a team Argentine unbeaten in 36 international matches were 8.7%.
Some of the most famous upheavals, such as North Korea beating Italy in 1966 and Cameroon beating then-title holders Argentina in the 1990 opener did not make Gracenote’s top 10 – both underdogs being better teams than widely considered .
Both reached the quarter-finals, a sign that they were better teams than believed at the time.
Top 10 World Cup upsets according to Gracenote:
1. Saudi Arabia 2 Argentina 1 (8.7% chance) 2022.
Ranked 51st in the world, Saudi Arabia faced a side hoping to equal the international record for unbeaten matches – 37. Things seemed to be looking up when Lionel Messi put Argentina ahead with a 10th-minute penalty but goals from Saleh Al-Shehri. and Salem Al-Dawsari at the start of the second half ensured the upset.
2. USA 1-0 England (9.5% chance) 1950.
Appearing for the first time, England were favorites to win the 1950 World Cup in Brazil while the Americans were a semi-professional team. England, with future World Cup-winning manager Alf Ramsey in defence, dominated but lost to Joey Gaetjens’ header in the first half. It would be another 44 years before the United States won another game at the World Cup.
3. Switzerland 1-0 Spain (10.3%) 2010.
Spain arrived in South Africa as European champions and World Cup favorites and although they had 22 shots to Switzerland’s six, they lost to a Gelson Fernandes goal in the second period. Spain recovered well enough from the setback to go on and win the final three weeks later.
4. Algeria 2-1 FRG (13.2%) 1982.
Algeria’s first-ever World Cup match had its finest hour as Lakhdar Belloumi netted the opening goal and netted the winner against European powerhouse West Germany.
The result led to one of the most unsavory episodes in World Cup history when Austria and West Germany conspired to secure a 1-0 victory for the Germans who took them all both sent to the second leg on goal difference at the expense of the North Africans. . Germany then lost to Italy in the final.
After this tournament, FIFA changed the rules to have the final group matches start simultaneously.
5. Ghana 2-0 Czech Republic (13.9%) 2006.
A Czech side that had reached the final of the 2004 European Championship were to go deep in the World Cup and open with a 3-0 demolition of the United States, while Ghana, who were making their World Cup debut, had already lost against Italy.
However, Asamoah Gyan put Ghana ahead after 70 seconds and Sulley Muntari got a late second to settle a fantastic game. Ghana then lost to Brazil in the second round, while the Czechs failed to qualify.
6. Uruguay 2-1 Brazil (14.2%) 1950.
The only World Cup not to feature a final, did indeed get one in that last group game, where Brazil only needed a draw at home to win the title.
In front of nearly 200,000 fans, Brazil led midway through the second half but Uruguay scored twice in 13 minutes through Pepe Schiaffino and Alcides Ghiggia to claim the trophy for the second time in a game that remains famous in the world. history of the two nations.
7. South Korea 2-0 Germany (14.4%) 2018.
Defending champions Germany had already lost to Mexico, but it was still a huge shock to see them beaten by South Korea, who needed a two-goal win to have any chance of progressing. .
They scored both goals in stoppage time through Kim Young-gwon and Son Heung-min, but the other group result eliminated them elsewhere, as well as Germany, who failed to get out of the way. the group stage for the first time since 1938.
8. Wales 2-1 Hungary (16.2%) 1958.
On the downward slope from their 1954 ‘Magnificent Magyars’ summit, Hungary were still considered one of the best teams in the world, but after a group draw with Wales they had to negotiate that qualifier against England. same team.
Expecting to put things right in the second encounter, Hungary were shocked again as Ivor Allchurch and Terry Medwin claimed victory in the second half. Wales sat out the World Cup again until Monday’s 1-1 draw with the United States.
9. Northern Ireland 1-0 Spain (16.5%) 1982.
Hosts Spain needed a draw to finish top of the group and advance to the easier second phase group, but despite dominating the game, Gerry Armstrong scored the most famous goal of the history of his small country.
ten. Senegal 1-0 France (17.3%) 2002
France were world and European champions while Senegal made their tournament debut in a match made even more spicy by the fact that 21 of Senegal’s 23 players played for French clubs.
In another memorable opener, Papa Bouba Diop scored the only goal as Senegal started a march to the quarter-finals while France finished bottom of their group.
