Although it no longer controls large swaths of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State remains a threat and will seek to release 10,000 of its fighters from Syrian prisons in 2023, experts say.
The infamous terror group has declined significantly since its peak in 2014, but it remains a threat in a volatile part of the Middle East, as well as overseas in Afghanistan and parts of Africa.
Moreover, there are fears that a possible ground offensive by Turkey in Syria could create the ideal conditions for IS to regain power.
“Blink and you’ll miss it and suddenly ISIS will be back,” says Middle East specialist Dr. Shiraz Maher.
In a year where other stories have dominated the headlines, Sky News takes a look at this IS done, and whether huge swathes of territory might again fall under its flag.
Since his the last strongholds in Syria have fallen to Western-backed forcesIS is operating at a “significantly diminished” level, according to terror expert Matthew Henman.
He said: “But the level of threat, the level of operational activity, has remained reasonably constant over this type of period.
“In various key theaters, the group maintained a steady pace of insurgent violence.”
Mr Henman, who works for the Janes intelligence agency, said the group and its more distant affiliates are focused on exploiting regional instabilities and still have plans to seize territory.
Seeking to seize territories in parts of Africa
Several branches, or provinces, of ISIS exist in the Middle East and Africa. Each has its own regional leader who then pledges allegiance to the general leader of the SI.
Abu al Hussein al Husseini al Qurayshi is the current leader of ISIS after his predecessor blew himself up in October as Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters closed.
At its height, the so-called IS caliphate ruled about a third of Syria and 40% of Iraq – a territory larger than Iceland.
In recent years, much of the group’s attention has turned to West Africa, Henman says, where it has encountered multinational task forces seeking to prevent it from gaining a proper foothold. .
In Afghanistan, the group’s regional affiliate – known as the Islamic State in Khorasan province – has stepped up its attacks since the Taliban regained power.
Earlier this month, China advised its citizens to leave the country following a coordinated attack by Islamic State militants on a Chinese-owned hotel in the heart of Kabul.
Read more: Islamic State in Africa – how the terror group’s influence is spreading across the continent
Smoke rises from the last besieged Islamic State stronghold in Baghuz in March 2019
Efforts to free thousands of imprisoned activists
But the danger of IS activity in Iraq and Syria remains, despite its reduced presence.
Some 70,000 people suspected of having links to the group, including women and children and around 10,000 IS militants, are being held by Kurdish forces in northeast Syria.
IS has made it clear that it intends to free its supporters. In January he used vehicles and explosives to crash into the walls of Gweiran prison in Hassakeh with the aim of freeing the 3,000 detainees.
Dr Shiraz Maher, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, said the risk of IS releasing thousands of imprisoned fighters is the “greatest security threat to the West”.
He told Sky News: “The Syrian Democratic Forces have repeatedly said that this is a ticking time bomb that they are sitting on (that they are not able to handle on their own.”
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Many of those detained by SDF forces are foreign fighters, but many countries have been reluctant to deal with them.
The delicate situation could be jeopardized if Turkey followed through on its threat of a ground invasion targeting Kurdish forces, Dr Maher warned.
Such a development could force Kurdish authorities to divert resources currently guarding its network of detention centers to the front line, creating a “massive capacity” for IS to free its supporters.
“We have to think creatively and have the courage to deal with this problem and nip it in the bud right now,” Dr Maher said.
“If the Islamic State returns to Syria and Iraq, people will die on the streets of Berlin, London and Madrid.”
