Chinese spy balloons: The confusing theories – and why none bode well for US-China relations | world news

There are many things in the history of the Chinese spy balloon that are truly puzzling.

On the one hand, you might read the events as a brazen, aggressive act by a power intent on maintaining a competitive advantage.

But on the other hand, there are real signs that China is committed to improving its relations with WE, or at least prevent further deterioration. The official response from the Foreign Office was also more blunt and apologetic than sometimes seen.

This incident – and in particular its timing, just two days before US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was to land in Beijing – seems something of a baffling contradiction to China’s efforts and work.

Have no doubt, a tremendous amount of painstaking diplomatic effort on both sides would have been required to make this visit happen. President Xi Jinping himself recognized at the G20 summit last year that China and the United States must do more to ensure that competition between them does not escalate into conflict.

Suggestions that Mr. Blinken should meet with Mr. Xi himself, a level of access that is not routinely granted, were a major sign that China was committed to the process. Jeopardizing the visit at the last minute will have done nothing to help an already suspicious relationship.

So why? What does China stand to gain that outweigh the diplomatic costs?

A number of experts in this type of balloon technology have weighed in, saying the gains for China in terms of intelligence gathered are likely to be quite limited.

Most of the suspected targets are probably already observed by spy satellites.

While these types of balloons can linger longer over certain areas, experts say that at this time of year the wind currents these balloons rely on for direction are unreliable and it is therefore very unlikely that they could have flown directly over their destination. target.

Others have also suggested that the Chinese almost certainly knew such a balloon would be detected, such is the exhaustive nature of US surveillance of its airspace.

Learn more:
China’s ‘spy balloons’ explained

If Intel’s potential is limited, what was the goal?

It’s possible this was the result of some kind of failed experiment or some kind of failure in his self-termination system.

Maybe it was indeed an accident that he ended up where he was.

Or perhaps it was a more conscious effort to provoke and intimidate, to embarrass the United States – perhaps how easy it was to enter its airspace. Some members of Congress have speculated that he was sent to test America’s response capabilities or to send a message that China’s surveillance technology is equal to that of its rival.

What is certain is that, although this incident is more visible and publicized, surveillance and espionage are a serious and widespread reality.

FBI Director Christopher Wray described China as a “game-changing challenge”. In 2020, he said the greatest long-term threat to U.S. information and intellectual property was “the threat of counterintelligence and economic espionage from China.”

Last October, the FBI estimated opening a new Chinese counterintelligence operation every 12 hours.

Under Xi, China’s actions and words on the international stage have also become more aggressive and unabashed. In this context, it is also possible that China is less invested in the process of repairing relations than it seems.

It’s worth remembering that America also engages in its fair share of surveillance – both sides are notorious for having spy satellites trained on the other.

All may not be lost in the budding efforts to try to contain the enmity that exists between the two. US officials insist that communication channels are still open and that Mr. Blinken’s visit is simply postponed and not cancelled.

But these relationships were already a very complex balancing act, even before this incident any sort of breakthrough was deemed unlikely, the odds now seem extremely more remote.