A US military operation to shoot down a Chinese “spy balloon” hovering in US airspace has come at a tense time for the two superpowers, whose relationship has been on difficult terrain for years.
But how did the WE with success down with a single missile – and what information do they now hope to find in the wreck?
An extensive underwater search is now underway to find the remains of the balloon, which the United States is confident will prove the Chinese lied about its purpose over American airspace.
China it has previously claimed to have been used for meteorological research and veered off course in high winds and with limited “self-steering capabilities” it was unable to right itself.
Yet the Pentagon says the balloon, which carried sensors and surveillance equipment, was maneuverable and demonstrated it could change course when loitered sensitive areas of Montana where nuclear warheads are kept.
The balloon was then seen over Kansas City and later in York County, where the sheriff’s department had to remind the public not to shoot it with their own guns: “Your rifle blasts will NOT reach it. Be responsible. What goes up will come down, including your bullets.”
Fired with a single missile: How the US shot down the balloon
The fact that the US military was able to shoot down the balloon with just one missile is significant.
Rockets often go straight through balloons because they aren’t solid enough to detonate them.
In 1998, British, Canadian and American forces failed to drop a truly rogue weather balloon over the Arctic.
The Canadian Air Force pumped over a thousand 20mm shells into it, yet it didn’t deflate.
“They’re designed to hit something solid,” said Sky defense and security analyst Professor Michael Clarke.
“Show some confidence and ingenuity to get it with a single missile.”
A map showing where the balloon was sighted and the US Malmstrom Air Base
The missile could have been fused to explode exactly three seconds after being launched, or such that the increased air pressure would have detonated it. Either way, it wasn’t a case of “trial and error”.
During the military operation, F-15 Eagle jets from Massachusetts accompanied F-22 Raptors, likely to discourage “nosy” countries who wanted to “take a look,” said Prof. Clarke.
“It’s not beyond the bounds of the possibility that the Russians, Chinese or somebody has a couple of planes to snoop around and see what’s going on.”
A second balloon has now been sighted, this time in the skies over Latin America, the Pentagon said.
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Insulting America: Why China Deployed a Spy Balloon
It’s a relic from the Cold War era of espionage and a “stunt gone wrong,” according to Prof. Clarke.
He said “someone in Beijing probably thought it would be a good idea” in retaliation for America announcing it would reopen military bases in Philippines.
The move, he said, was designed to “insult Americans”.
Was the United States really that offended Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly canceled a long-awaited trip in Beijing.
Photo: Chad Fish via AP
‘They have lost control of this issue because now they are completely wrong,’ said Professor Clarke.
“They violated the airspace, it was shot down, the surveillance equipment will be recovered, I am sure, and it will be proven to be surveillance equipment, then it will be proven that they lied.
“And they missed the Blinken visit – for now. The Blinken visit will go ahead, but maybe in a couple of months or more.
“They are wrong and Americans can milk this as much as they choose to.”
But this isn’t the first time a Chinese spy balloon has entered foreign airspace: Three similar incidents occurred during the Trump administration, which received relatively little media attention at the time.
To know more:
What are “spy balloons” and what is their role?
The Baffling Theories Behind China’s “Spy Balloon”
The route of the spy balloon from China over the Aleutian Islands, through Canada and into Montana
China allegedly “obliterated” the spy balloon remotely
It’s unlikely the US would have cared about what information the balloon was gathering, Professor Clarke said.
“The missile fields in Montana are sensitive facilities, there are a lot of military facilities around there,” he said.
“But there’s nothing you can’t get from satellites. Even if they’re sensitive, there’s nothing new going on there.”
American planes began circling the balloon as soon as it first appeared, and would use military equipment “either to unload whatever the Chinese had or to interfere with it in any way.”
“You have a plane circling 10,000 feet below the balloon. You’re able to block all the signals it’s sending or receiving or just suck everything that’s on it out of it,” he added.
“The unwritten story of this little fiasco – [which] in the following months it will be released – [is] the electronic battle that took place when the balloon was flying over Montana.”
But he said China was likely to clean up the spy balloon, so the US probably won’t recover much software from the wreck.
Instead, the hardware “will prove that the Chinese had used monitoring devices, listening devices, communication signals, intelligence devices. They will be able to clearly demonstrate that it was not a weather balloon.”
Finding these devices will show that “the Chinese have lied shamelessly.”
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The movements of the Chinese spy balloon
What happens now?
With President Joe Biden delivering his State of the Union address on Tuesday, it’s likely he’ll want the balloon recovered in time to mention the find.
So far, Mr. Biden has remained relatively quiet on the deal and only made a brief statement on the matter upon his arrival at Camp David.
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“They successfully removed it”
“I’d be surprised if he didn’t use it on Tuesday to show the kind of president he is,” said Prof. Clarke.
“It’s not effusive, it’s not hysterical, it just gets the job done.”
