The specter of independence is both Humza Yousaf’s toughest challenge and his biggest political advantage.
There may be no short-term route to Scotland leaving the UK, but the continued dominance of the constitutional question means the SNP’s position still seems reasonably secure.
This can be traced back to the 2014 independence referendum – where 55% voted No and 45% voted Yes – which changed the dynamics of Scottish politics, perhaps permanently.
Ever since then, views on the union have heavily influenced voting intention.
Politics live: Yousaf claims he will be the leader to secure independence
Independence backers largely support the SNP, whereas unionists split between Labour, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Mr Yousaf’s election could gradually change that if Scots shift to the position, common in the rest of the UK, of focusing on the state of the economy and public services at the ballot box.
If so, Scottish Labor is most likely to benefit.
Achieving the SNP’s abiding aim in the short term is tough. There is no clear path to another referendum, and even if there was, it would be blocked by the UK government.
Therefore building public support for Scotland leaving the UK will be a longer-term project.
Scottish Labour’s leadership have long known that a recovery north of the border would be tricky if Nicola Sturgeon stayed in post.
Her departure is a game changer. Now a series of Westminster seats – perhaps between 10 and 20 – are within reach.
Almost all of these are in the country’s “central belt” around Glasgow and Edinburgh, and winning them would help guarantee Sir Keir Starmer’s place in Number 10.
However, over the past eight years Labour’s activist base has crumbled. One party strategist told me it was effectively “dead.”
Read more:
Five key challenges Scotland’s new first minister will face
Yousaf’s leadership win a big victory for SNP establishment
Labor sources argue Humza Yousaf (or “Humza Useless” to his detractors) is their perfect opponent because his name is shorthand for government mismanagement.
It will allow them to link the SNP to problems with the NHS and education system.
However, the new SNP leader should not be underestimated. He has years of government experience under his belt and is a smooth communicator.
Mr Yousaf’s biggest challenge may now be uniting his fractured party and keeping members happy when the independent future they all want looks very difficult to achieve.
