Pollsters had predicted that Congress would have an edge in the state, but that there would likely be a fragmented mandate. Congress, however, proved the exit polls wrong, and by noon it comfortably passed half of the 113 seats.
This is the biggest victory for Congress in the state since 1989, when it won 178 seats.
While the BJP has said it will look closely at what went wrong and promised to be a “responsible opposition in the state,” a reinvigorated Congress said Karnataka was just the beginning and a “stepping stone to Lok’s election Sabha of 2024”.
Here’s a look at the Survey results Karnataka in 10 graphs:
Seat count
As has been the anti-incumbent trend in the state for the past 40 years, party fortunes vary wildly with each assembly election.
In 2018, the BJP had emerged as the largest single party with 108 seats, while the Congress had won 80 and the JD(S) 37. With no clear winner, the state has seen much political turmoil which ended after that the BJP wrested power from the ruling Congress-JD(S) alliance in 2019.
The latest elections gave a clear mandate: 136 seats in Congress, 65 in the BJP and 19 in the JD(S).
Stable vote share
While the number of seats won by parties has fluctuated sharply, the percentage of votes has remained fairly stable.
In 2023, the BJP won 35.7% of the vote, up from 36.4% in 2018.
Congressional vote share increased by more than 5 percentage points, from 38.1% in 2018 to 43.2% this time.
The JD(S) has predictably seen the biggest drop in popularity, falling from 18.3% in 2018 to 13.3% in 2023.
While the increase in vote percentage was small, Congress was able to translate the increase into more wins.
JD(S) in limbo
HD Kumaraswamy’s party, which was trying to be kingmaker once again, now finds itself on the sidelines with the Congress receiving an overwhelming mandate in Karnataka.
By 2018, the JD(S) had won 37 seats and was able to forge an alliance with Congress to briefly form government.
This time, the JD(S)’s count was nearly halved to 19 and it mostly managed to hold on to its urban seats. It remains to be seen whether the JD(S) will decide to join Congress or sit in opposition alongside the BJP.
Lingayats supports Congress
The state’s largest voting bloc supported Congress in the 2023 election in contrast to the BJP, which relied heavily on the community to push it past the midpoint.
Of the 70 constituencies dominated by the Lingayat community, Congress improved its tally from 38 in 2018 to 44 in 2023. The BJP lost 18 seats, up from 38 in 2018 to 20 in 2023. The JD(S) lost 5 seats, going from 10 in 2018 to 5 in 2023.
Exchange of Vokkaligas from JD (S)
The Vokkaliga community is the second most important constituency bloc in the state after the Lingayats. He has traditionally supported the JD(S) or Congress.
In the 2018 election, of the 44 Vokkaliga-dominated constituencies, 24 went to the JD(S), 11 to Congress and 8 to the BJP.
This time, however, the JD(S) failed to agree with the community and Congress managed to win 29 seats while the JD(S) won 10 and the BJP 4.
Tough fight in Greater Bengaluru
The 32 constituencies that make up the Greater Bengaluru region saw a head-to-head clash between Congress and the BJP in the 2023 election.
Ultimately, Congress managed to win 18 seats while the BJP secured 14 seats.
In the last assembly elections, the BJP managed to win 11 seats while Congress won 15.
Coastal Karnataka follows the trend
Following the broader sentiments in the state, some of the 21 constituencies that make up coastal Karnataka have turned away from the BJP.
In 2018 the BJP had managed to win 18 of the 21 seats. This time he won 12. Congress improved his tally from 3 in 2018 to 8 in 2023.
Seat shift
With the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities opting not to vote along traditional lines, many seats in Karnataka have seen a change of power.
While Congress gained 77 seats and retained 59, the BJP gained 22 and retained 42. Meanwhile, the JD(S) gained 12 seats and retained 8.
Seats dominated by Muslims
This time the 34 Muslim-majority seats in the state rejected the JD(S), choosing to go with the BJP or Congress.
In the last assembly elections, the BJP and Congress won 15 seats each while the JD(S) won 3. won 13.
Changing the political map
The loss of the southern state is a major blow to the morale of the BJP. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had made a whirlwind tour of the state, organizing roadshows and rallies, all for nothing.
The BJP’s reliance on the “Modi wave” may have cost it dearly as voters seemed to respond to other parties raising local issues during the election campaign.
With South India having rejected the BJP, the party is now in power in 10 states and part of an alliance in 6 other states.
With the latest setback, the BJP now rules over 43% of the total area of India, home to around 47% of the population.
Had the BJP kept the southern state, the figures would have been 49% and 52% respectively.
