Chennai Super Kings may have lost their last match against Kolkata Knight Riders but MS Dhoni & co. they are still the favorites for a top four finish in the IPL 2023 after the league stage.
The same goes for Gujarat Titans, who could seal qualification on Monday with a win against Sunrisers Hyderabad in what is their last home game of the league stage.
With 9 matches left to play in the IPL 2023 group stage, there are now 512 possible result combinations. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to reach the play-offs, another is one of the favorites to do so and a fourth team has a nearly two-thirds chance. Among others, DC is now definitely out of the playoffs but the others are still in the running, even if SRH only slightly.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Monday 15th May morning:
1. GT is already certain to finish in a top three position in terms of points. The lowest score they can finish is third. Their chances of being the sole leader increased to 63.1%. However, it’s still theoretically possible they lose the NRR because they can still finish tied with up to three other teams for third place, but that’s only a 1.6% chance
2. Despite losing on Sunday, CSK are also almost certain to finish in the top four with the chances of finishing in that group alone or together now at 94.9%.
3.MI are in third place and their chances of making the top four spots have gone up to 89.1%, although that includes scenarios where they are tied for fourth place.
4. Currently in fourth place, LSG has an almost two-thirds chance (65.2% to be exact) of making the top four. Again this includes scenarios where it’s only quarters united, some of them with multiple teams.
5.RCB moved up to fifth after Sunday’s victory and their chances of finishing in the top four have doubled to 43.8%, although that includes situations of teams level on points for fourth place.
6. Currently in sixth place after Sunday’s loss, RR’s chances of making the top four have plummeted to 18.8%. They can’t do better than the fourth draw, and that’s if they win the remaining game and other results fall into place.
7. PBKS are down to eighth, but one more game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points are better, at 43.8%, than RR, who is above them in the league table. points.
8.KKR moved up to seventh place with Sunday’s victory, but can finish no better than fourth place with one to five other teams. Their chances of achieving this goal are now at 21.1%.
9. 9th-placed SRH can, like KKR, tie for fourth place on points at best and their chances of making it are just 7%.
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over. They became the first team to be eliminated following Saturday’s loss to PBKS.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We went through all 512 possible outcome combinations with 9 games remaining. We assumed that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then look at how many of the melds put each team in a top four position for points. This gives us our probability number. To give a specific example, of the 512 possible result combinations, SRH only finishes in the top four in points in 36 of them. This translates into a 7% chance of making the top four. We don’t take into account net or No Outcomes execution rates because predicting them in advance is impossible.
The same goes for Gujarat Titans, who could seal qualification on Monday with a win against Sunrisers Hyderabad in what is their last home game of the league stage.
With 9 matches left to play in the IPL 2023 group stage, there are now 512 possible result combinations. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to reach the play-offs, another is one of the favorites to do so and a fourth team has a nearly two-thirds chance. Among others, DC is now definitely out of the playoffs but the others are still in the running, even if SRH only slightly.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Monday 15th May morning:
1. GT is already certain to finish in a top three position in terms of points. The lowest score they can finish is third. Their chances of being the sole leader increased to 63.1%. However, it’s still theoretically possible they lose the NRR because they can still finish tied with up to three other teams for third place, but that’s only a 1.6% chance
2. Despite losing on Sunday, CSK are also almost certain to finish in the top four with the chances of finishing in that group alone or together now at 94.9%.
3.MI are in third place and their chances of making the top four spots have gone up to 89.1%, although that includes scenarios where they are tied for fourth place.
4. Currently in fourth place, LSG has an almost two-thirds chance (65.2% to be exact) of making the top four. Again this includes scenarios where it’s only quarters united, some of them with multiple teams.
5.RCB moved up to fifth after Sunday’s victory and their chances of finishing in the top four have doubled to 43.8%, although that includes situations of teams level on points for fourth place.
6. Currently in sixth place after Sunday’s loss, RR’s chances of making the top four have plummeted to 18.8%. They can’t do better than the fourth draw, and that’s if they win the remaining game and other results fall into place.
7. PBKS are down to eighth, but one more game in hand means their chances of finishing in the top four on points are better, at 43.8%, than RR, who is above them in the league table. points.
8.KKR moved up to seventh place with Sunday’s victory, but can finish no better than fourth place with one to five other teams. Their chances of achieving this goal are now at 21.1%.
9. 9th-placed SRH can, like KKR, tie for fourth place on points at best and their chances of making it are just 7%.
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over. They became the first team to be eliminated following Saturday’s loss to PBKS.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We went through all 512 possible outcome combinations with 9 games remaining. We assumed that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then look at how many of the melds put each team in a top four position for points. This gives us our probability number. To give a specific example, of the 512 possible result combinations, SRH only finishes in the top four in points in 36 of them. This translates into a 7% chance of making the top four. We don’t take into account net or No Outcomes execution rates because predicting them in advance is impossible.
