The general election exit poll has painted a picture of electoral implosion for the Tories with many cabinet ministers heading for their own “Portillo Moment” – the shock loss of their seats.
This is a phenomenon that got its name from the downfall of Conservative cabinet minister Michael Portillo back in 1997, when Labour swept to power under the leadership of Tony Blair.
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That year the Tories were trimmed down to just 165 MPs, but tonight’s exit poll indicates even more losses, with big names on course to be unseated.
The probabilities vary, with the exit poll predicting a “likely win” when a party is considered to have a 95% chance of winning, a “possible gain” when the chance of winning is between 80% and 94% and “too close to call” when no one party has an 80% chance.
Based on those probabilities, here’s a look at the cabinet figures who are in danger of being unseated.
Jeremy Hunt
The biggest Tory casualty of the night looks set to be Jeremy Hunt, who will become the first sitting chancellor in modern British history to lose his seat if the exit poll is correct.
The Tory grandee has held multiple senior roles in government since entering parliament in 2005 and has twice tried (and failed) to become party leader.
But any hopes he might have harboured of running for a third time look to have been quashed by the Lib Dems, who have an 81% likelihood of gaining the new Godalming and Ash constituency.
Grant Shapps
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps could also be on the way out after 19 years as the MP for Welwyn Hatfield in Hertfordshire.
The exit poll says Labour has a 94% chance of winning his seat, a prediction which if true means the Tories will lose not only a veteran cabinet minister, but also someone considered to be one of the party’s strongest communicators.
This strength saw him put in charge of various government departments over the years, including transport, energy, business and the Home Office (albeit briefly).
Alex Chalk
The exit poll predicts a 99% chance of a victory for the Lib Dems in Alex Chalk’s Cheltenham constituency, which he has held since 2015.
Last year he became the 11th justice secretary in 13 years after Dominic Raab resigned over bullying allegations – a brief that did not come without its challenges amid overcrowding in prisons and a record crown court backlog.
Mr Chalk was also the solicitor general under Boris Johnson, but joined the mass exodus of ministers that caused his administration to collapse.
Johnny Mercer
Johnny Mercer unexpectedly won Plymouth Moor View from Labour in 2015 and has increased his majority at each election since, but the exit poll predicts a 99% likelihood that the Devon constituency will turn back red.
The veterans minister has been a champion of the British military community and has served in his post since July 2022 (bar the two months he was controversially sacked by Liz Truss).
Since then the combative ex-soldier has continued to hit the headlines a lot, notably because he is potentially facing time in prison over his decision not to hand over certain information to the Independent Inquiry relating to Afghanistan.
Penny Mordaunt
Pic: AP
Commons leader Penny Mordaunt could unseated by Labour in Portsmouth North – a fate that would upset Tory moderates who saw her as a potential successor to Rishi Sunak.
An MP since 2010, the Royal Navy reservist became the first ever female defence secretary in the dying days of Theresa May’s government.
Although she was demoted by Boris Johnson a few months later, the two-time leadership contender maintained a high media profile as Leader of the House of Commons under two subsequent prime ministers (notably for her sword-carrying skills at the King’s coronation).
The exit poll defines this seat as “too close to call”, but predicts a possible Labour gain by 70%.
Mark Harper
Transport Secretary Mark Harper also appears on the cusp of losing his Forest of Dean seat, which he has held since 2005. While it is “too close to call”, the exit poll tips Labour over the edge with a 54% chance of victory.
Mr Harper was given his cabinet position when the prime minister took office, having previously held numerous ministerial positions and served as the chief whip.
The close Sunak ally is also known for leading the COVID Recovery Group of backbench MPs who challenged lockdown restrictions during the pandemic.
Lucy Frazer
Another possible victim of the Lib Dem plan to “smash” the Tory blue wall is Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer.
The exit poll predicts a 51% chance of a Lib Dem win in the Ely and East Cambridgeshire constituency.
Ms Frazer has been an MP since 2015 and held multiple ministerial jobs before she was elevated to cabinet status in Mr Sunak’s reshuffle last year – a role in which she has faced criticism after accusing the BBC of bias.
