Green shoots seen in Indian IT after tough year

BENGALURU: Analysts tracking the IT sector are seeing green shoots, but the trendline points to modest growth for Indian IT in the June quarter results, which will be announced starting this week. This comes after a challenging March quarter and FY24.
Revenue growth predictions vary widely, with the possibility of negative growth, although mid-tier IT firms like Persistent Systems and Happiest Minds are expected to outperform top IT companies.The upper end of the sequentially constant currency revenue growth forecast ranges from 0.6% to 5%.

Green shoots seen in Indian IT after tough year

HDFC Securities, in its note, said Infosys is expected to maintain its guidance of 1-3% constant currency growth for FY25 (excluding the tech acquisition), and HCLTech at 3% to 5% during the same period. Wipro is expected to guide -0.5% to 1.5% revenue growth for the Sept quarter, according to the results preview note. Prabhudas Lilladher said TCS is expected to report a sequential constant currency revenue increase of 1.4% but expects the margin to drop by 110 basis points due to increased visa costs and recently implemented wage hikes, which included double-digit increases for top performers, as announced in the March quarter.
HDFC Securities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, and Prabhudas Lilladher believe that companies will maintain their margin guidance. “Margins for the sector are likely to remain largely range-bound. The benefits from deferring wage hikes and benign currency movements could be offset by the ongoing challenge of recovering lost volumes. The first quarter is also anticipated to be affected by visa costs, leading to a slightly negative bias for the quarter. We believe FY25 will be a year of restrained wage hikes across the industry,” Motilal Oswal said in a note.
Prabhudas Lilladher expects Infosys’s revenue to increase sequentially by 2.2% in constant currency with a margin improvement of 50 basis points, driven by the ramp-up of large deals. The analyst expects Wipro and HCLTech to be laggards among the top firms, with Wipro experiencing a sequential constant currency decline in revenue by 0.5%. Margin recovery is expected to be muted due to missing growth elements and the ramp-up of large deals.


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