The tornado bettered the best ever score – 149, which Congress achieved under its wily giant Madhavsinh Solanki in 1985 – achieved in Gujarat since its formation in 1960. That comes after 27 years of party rule in the state and the the age of ever-rising expectations and shifting political affiliations underscores its scope and significance. The BJP overwhelmed its opponents across the state, blurring the rural-urban divide and winning tribal-dominated seats that had remained pockets of resistance even during the overloaded periods of 2002 and 2007.
It is a testament to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, which remains unchanged across the country, but takes on an emotional dimension in his home state. The huge man attraction has been the single most important factor in the feat the BJP has pulled off despite the fact that the terms of its prime ministers since 2014, when Modi arrived in New Delhi, have been nothing short of exciting.
The prime minister’s appeal was also why the BJP narrowly lost the race in Himachal Pradesh — 0.6% — with internal feuding playing a huge part in why the tiny hill state he did not join the ranks of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam and Manipur where the BJP remained in office defying the “incumbency” handicap.
The stellar performance further widened the gap between the Modi-led BJP and its rivals. Congress, which has also shown resilience during Modi’s prime ministership, finished a miserable second as AAP’s high-decibel challenge faded.
Congress, which shut down the BJP five years ago, was unlikely to repeat its feat because the combination of factors – ranging from traders’ restlessness over GST and caste unrest to local grievances – didn’t work this time. However, he ended up inflicting a bigger wound on himself due to Rahul Gandhi’s inexplicable decision to abandon the field in favor of a noble ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’. The damage, which can’t be repaired by the consolation prize in HP, could have been worse if AAP, armed with loads of freebies and rookie appeal, had even remotely matched the hype it managed to generate.
The perception that has arisen about the AAP being the giant killer of Morocco’s percentage, which brought down the fictional Spain team in the World Cup, is likely to come back to haunt Arvind Kejriwal, with comparisons sure to be drawn. between its actual performance and the miracle it promised. Along with the vacuum in Himachal, the only consolation AAP can draw is its performance in the Delhi civic polls.
The overwhelming performance of the BJP in Gujarat and its strong performance in Himachal bodes well for the party ahead of the upcoming state elections and LS polls of 2024. In Modi’s unrivaled popularity, he has a weapon that all his rivals put together they cannot match. He has also put together a powerful platform, with development, welfare, nationalism and Hindutva among his scaffolding. Starting with the next budget, it could be armored with schemes that the Center can finance with its high income. The G20 presidency and the global attention focused on India due to its post-Covid economic recovery can be a powerful juice for a narrative to be sculpted around a “capable and powerful” leadership.
On the other hand, the picture looks fuzzier than ever. The victory in Himachal Pradesh strengthened the Congress against other claimants in the opposition space. Its leadership, which has never been comfortable with the suggestion that it trim its ambitions to match its small force on the ground, will reject any opposition unity project that does not recognize its centrality – a stance that other opposition parties they found snooty and refused to indulge.
The giant saffron surge in Gujarat is also a setback to AAP’s ambition to emerge as an alternative magnet at the expense of Congress and other opposition members. More ominously, the MCD poll win comes with signs of its vulnerability. He has failed to get the returns he had hoped to get from his ‘Delhi model’, while the evidence of Muslim annoyance means he cannot pretend to be both a ‘secular’ and ‘soft Hindutva’ education in one. polarized atmosphere. The space for such political stunts may shrink further if the BJP starts implementing the Citizenship Amendment Act and accelerates the pace of bringing a large swath under the uniform civil code.
The BJP is aware of its “favourite” status for 2024, but it will not let that, as Modi indicated during his speech at the post-victory celebrations at the BJP headquarters, culminate in complacency. He pledged continued support to HP, making clear that regime change in Shimla will not dampen the BJP’s ambition for a repeat of 4 LS seats in the state. He also spoke about the BJP’s victory in the Muslim dominated Rampur seat of UP, a vivid display of the BJP’s will to win even against the odds, as well as the shocking victory of the party in the Kurhani seat in Bihar, saying it was an indicator of what was to come in the state with 40 LS seats.
Wading Decoding BJP’s Gigantic Win in Gujarat Assembly 2022 Polls: Here Are the Big 5 Results
