Azad, who was one of the prominent faces of the G23 dissenting group, has joined a growing list of disgruntled congressional leaders who have left the party in recent months due to leadership issues.
The veteran J&K politician has announced that he will now form his political party in J&K.
Azad’s move comes at a critical time as assembly elections are likely to be announced at J&K later this year or early next year. It will be the first elections in the Valley since the abrogation of article 370 in 2019.
With the demarcation exercise completed, the parties are already preparing for the upcoming political battle in Jammu and Kashmir. And that’s why Azad’s resignation could be crucial, not for Congress but for the BJP.
A “modified” Azad?
In an excavation in Azad after leaving the party, Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said that “the DNA of the GNA (Azad’s initials) has been modified”.
The remark from the senior congressional leader was not just a cheeky reference to Azad’s close association with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but an indicator that the J&K leader could form an alliance with the BJP in the future.
For now, Azad has ruled out joining any group and will likely go solo in the near future.
However, if an alliance materializes, it could be a win-win situation for BJP and Azad.
The saffron party already has a strong presence in the Jammu region of the UT. It had won 25 out of 37 seats in the region in 2014. In fact, all of these seats were in Jammu itself.
With Azad in the fold – as party leader or ally – the BJP would seek to consolidate these gains as the former CM hails from Jammu.
Additionally, the BJP will see significant gains in Jammu in both cases as the demarcation exercise left the region with six more seats, from 37 to 43.
An alliance with Azad could strengthen the position of the saffron party not only in Jammu, but also outside the region.
Azad was J&K Prime Minister from November 2005 to July 2018. As the head of Congress at J&K, he toured the valley and spent time interacting with the locals.
Therefore, Azad’s appeal to J&K will help the saffron party in the event of an alliance and could also dent the vote banks of the PDP, National Conference and Congress.
Also for Azad the BJP could be a possible resource since it will no longer find the space to impose itself in traditional parties such as NC or PDP. Furthermore, the close friendship of him with PM Modi and cordial ties with other BJP leaders will work in his favor.
In the past, the BJP has also reaped rich political dividends by giving space to former congressional leaders. Take Himanta Biswa Sarma and Jyotiraditya Scindia for example.
Both Sarma and Scindia had left Congress due to dissatisfaction with the party leadership. In BJP, Sarma is now the prime minister of Assam while Scindia is the Union’s civil aviation minister. Both leaders also helped the BJP win crucial elections in Assam and MP.
Is an Azad-BJP union likely?
BJP leader Kuldeep Bishnoi has already rolled out the welcome mat for Azad, saying he will be happy to persuade the J&K leader to join the party if asked.
Azad’s grandson Mubashir Azad also joined the BJP in February of this year.
However, it is difficult to say whether the leaders of the BJP or even Azad are considering a political alliance.
Some within the BJP believe that an alliance with Azad would not be politically viable for either side. They believe that if Azad joins the BJP and is projected as the face of CM, the saffron party could lose Hindu support in Jammu while Azad will suffer a similar fate with Muslims in Srinagar.
Others think it is too late for Azad, 73, to join the party and make his mark.
But in politics nothing is set in stone.
In recent years, the Saffron Party has welcomed loyal rivals into its flock and witnessed political breakthroughs. Also in J&K he formed an alliance with an ideologically opposed party like the PDP.
And if the Congressional suggestion wasn’t enough, Azad himself began his resignation letter with a statement that sends a strong signal.
In his letter to Sonia, Azad claimed he joined Congress in Jammu and Kashmir in the mid-1970s, when it was still “taboo” to be associated with the party given its history in the state.
Only time will tell if Azad can make another bold political move like that 50 years later.
