Taiwan will have to rely on its “hedgehog strategy” to make up for the difference in strength if it has any hope of repelling an invasion from China, experts say.
The hedgehog strategy has increasingly emerged in conversations following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and with the potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Strategists advertise it as the best way for a smaller and inferior military power to try to confront the military giants, as best shown in Ukraine.
Newt Gingrich in a Fox News editorial published last year called for Taiwan to turn “into a porcupine,” which would require US and European allies to supply Taiwan as many anti-ship weapons, air-launched sea mines and Shoulder straps – Launched missile launchers possible.
Matt McInnis of the Institute for the Study of War described it as a way for a smaller state to fight effectively and perhaps even defeat a larger power. That doesn’t mean ditching any high-end conventional weapon, but rather balancing it with a healthy, if not stronger, focus on smaller, more versatile guns.
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“You have to integrate some classic high-end conventional capabilities like advanced aircraft, jet fighters, some Abrams tanks … but these need to be rebalanced against an increasing number of asymmetrical capabilities,” McInnis told Fox News Digital.
“These many little ones [weapons] they will be fundamental to take advantage of Taiwan’s geography, the fact that it is on the defensive, that you always have a defensive advantage, “he added.” You have to carry cruise missiles, drones, mines, mortars as if you were seeing in Ukraine that this type of capability it would make it difficult for China to carry out an invasion. “
In Ukraine, soldiers have to eliminate tanks and planes, using a relatively smaller and cheaper force to level the field. The strategy is all about providing the smaller military with a wide range of small but light and less expensive weapons or equipment that can allow them to take advantage of dealing large damage with a smaller punch.
“Faced with the prospect of a forced invasion by the People’s Republic of China … what Taiwan needs are weapon systems that can effectively counter the invasion,” James Anderson, undersecretary, told Fox News Digital. to Defense for politics under President Trump. “The PRC needs large amphibious ships to invade, but Taiwan does not need large ships to defend itself … [it] it needs a lot of coastal anti-ship missiles, among other defense systems. “
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“Taiwan does not need to match the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) weapon-for-weapon. It should pursue an asymmetrical strategy with the right mix of defensive weapons to offset the potential for an invasion of the PRC,” he explained.
Anderson pointed to Israel as another example of a smaller nation that has managed to compete with much larger armies throughout its history, as well as the Baltic states, which have repelled Russian invasions for centuries despite the great disparity in military power. .
“Taiwan needs weapons systems that are versatile, durable and not overly expensive but in significant numbers,” Anderson said. “What they don’t need are very large, vulnerable and expensive platforms that they can’t afford to source and maintain.”
The strategy may have gained more prominence now that China appears to have begun to show how it could approach an invasion, which experts have long labeled as highly difficult due to the lack of a stable land approach, making it even more difficult to build up forces.
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But Beijing has amassed forces around the island in recent weeks as part of what it claims to be regular military exercises, partly in coordination with Russia. The flagrant threat and massive nature of these exercises have prompted critics to argue that the United States must change its decades-long policy of ambiguity in order to strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities.
“The biggest problem with the porcupine strategy is that it alone doesn’t guarantee deterrence,” Anderson said. “It is a necessary but not sufficient deterrent condition, so what is needed to complete the defensive strategy … is for the United States to provide more clarity and less ambiguity about what they would do in a crisis.”
“Simply put, the United States must abandon its policy of strategic ambiguity, which has served this country well for several decades but has outlived its usefulness,” he added.
