Spoiler alerts started early: yours.
Donald Trump was screaming ‘come back’ to the political jerks of every stadium he has managed to find in the two years since he was kicked out of the White House.
Now, we’ve been told, the least surprising announcement in US politics is imminent.
The timing is no surprise, as he’ll want to see how the Republican Party fares in the mid-term on Tuesday: any politician worthy of a shred of strategy and self-interest would want to measure the speed of the journey before hopping on the bandwagon.
Timing could also play into something else: the small matter of possible criminal charges.
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How do mid-term elections work?
The United States Department of Justice investigated the Capitol riots and the discovery of confidential government documents at Mr. Trump’s home and resort in Mar-a-Lago, Florida.
If Trump were to be indicted, it would be signed by Merrick Garland, the US Attorney General appointed by President Joe Biden.
You can already see the script, the one in which Trump is accused and points to a stitched up, politically motivated Democrat to undermine his presidential ambitions.
Experience tells us that his claims would have had an audience.
A strong Republican performance on Tuesday can only give it a boost – and that, in a party that has been reshaped in its shadow.
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‘Democracy is at risk,’ Biden warns
Trump’s acolytes – election deniers and others – are threaded through a changed party.
Even members who resist the lure of his policy cannot ignore a core of Trump’s support within their ranks.
Republican candidates, nationwide and state, were quick to receive his support when they ran for the primary runoff; he will feel they owe him.
He will be the big beast in a party leadership contest, but there will likely be other serious candidates. People like Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, and the man who was Trump’s number two in the White House, Mike Pence.
The challenge for all will be to rally the traditionalists of the party with its marginal elements that have become mainstream.
It will be a continuation of the struggle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party: the rules of engagement will not necessarily be “the party first”.
