Just one day before Election Day, more than 41 million people have already cast their ballots. And in several states — including two battleground states — more people voted before Election Day than in 2018, according to data from election officials Edison Research and Catalist.
In Georgia and Wisconsin, more people voted before Election Day than four years ago. In Peach State, where Democrats will try to retain a key Senate seat, more than 2.5 million people have already voted. In 2018, a total of over 2.1 million Georgian voters cast their ballots before election day.
It’s a similar story in Wisconsin where Republicans will be trying to hold on to their Senate seats. More than 715,000 Wisconsinans have already voted midterm in 2022, while less than 580,000 voted before Election Day in 2018.
The total number of pre-election voters does not predict total turnout in this election cycle – and voting trends have changed since Covid-19 created new opportunities for many voters to vote ahead of Election Day.
Pre-election voting is still well below 2020 levels, which is no surprise given the higher turnout in presidential elections and the unusual circumstances of the pandemic.
And Democrats are more likely to vote early — either by mail or early in person — while Republicans are more likely to vote in person on Election Day.
Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia have also already exceeded the total number of votes. pre-elections registered in 2018.
In most of those states, including Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania, no-excuse early voting was not available to voters four years ago.
In key states this election cycle where voters are registering by party, only one state — Arizona — saw a higher share of Democrats voting than at this point in the cycle in 2018.
Arizona Democrats make up 38% of those who have already voted, up from the 36% share they had in 2018, according to data from Catalist, a company that provides data, insights and data. analytics and other services to Democrats, academics, and nonprofit issues. -advocacy organizations and provides insight into who is voting ahead of November.
The Republican share of pre-election turnout fell in the state with 37% of pre-election votes cast by Republicans. In 2018, Republicans in Arizona cast 41% of pre-election votes at the same point in the cycle.
Ohio Democrats also cast a larger share of pre-election votes than in 2018. Democrats made up 32% of Ohio’s pre-election electorate four years ago, and this time around they represented 34%. The Republican share fell from 31% to 29%.
Many Republican leaders, like former President Donald Trump, have questioned some pre-election voting methods like early voting, and encouraged Republicans to vote on Election Day.
In a potentially competitive state, Republicans make up a larger share of those who voted before the election than Democrats.
In Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and GOP Sen. Marco Rubio are both favorites for re-election, 43% of those who have already voted are Republicans, while 36% are Democrats. At this point in 2018, when the state narrowly elected DeSantis and ousted a Democratic senator, 41% of those who voted were Republicans and 40% were Democrats.
The pre-election electorate is also slightly younger in most key states than it was at this point in 2018.
In Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, a greater proportion of voters under 40 have already voted than four years ago.
In Arizona, more than 15% of those who have already voted are under 40. In 2018, this demographic group represented 14% of the pre-election electorate.
And in Georgia, a larger increase is observed. In 2018, more than 17% of those who voted at this stage were under 40. This share is now over 19% for this election.
In Wisconsin, voters under 40 make up 13.5% of those who have already voted, compared to four years ago this demographic made up about 12% of the pre-election electorate.
Most of these states saw the initial surge in the number of young voters casting ballots before Election Day between 2018 and 2020, when Covid-19 precautions expanded opportunities for pre-election voting.
