IPL Playoffs 2023 Chance: All IPL Teams Still Alive For Top Four Spots | Cricket News

To say IPL 2023 has been an extremely open season thus far would be an understatement. All 10 teams are still mathematically alive in the race for the four playoff spots.
With 16 matches left to play in the IPL 2023 group stage, there are over 65,000 possible outcome combinations left. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As it stands, one team is all but certain to reach the play-offs, two others are heavily favored to do so and none of the others are permanently eliminated yet and none of them can in fact tie for first place.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Wednesday May 10 morning:
1.GT is already almost certain to finish in a top four position in terms of points. The lowest they can finish is a third draw with one or more teams and this is in just 180 of the more than 65,500 match result combinations that remain. This gives them a 100% chance of making the top four spots, although it’s still theoretically possible that they’ll miss out on the NRR.
2. CSK’s chances of finishing in the top four are also very good at 85.2% with nearly 56,000 of the remaining result combinations placing them in that bracket individually or jointly.
3. Tuesday’s win moved MI to third and increased their chances of making the top four, which now sit at 76.6 or slightly better than three out of four, although that includes situations where NRR could get into game.
4. Despite currently sitting in fourth, LSG is more likely to stick with a 46% chance of making the top four and even this includes scenarios where they are only fourth together, some of them with multiple teams.
5. Currently in fifth place, RR’s chances of making the top four are just better than one in three at 36.6% and again this includes scenarios with two or more teams tied for fourth place.
6.KKR are now in sixth place, but their chances of finishing in the top four in terms of points, individually or together, are slightly better than RR’s at 37.2%.
7. Monday’s loss to KKR means that PBK extension they too have just over a one in three chance of finishing in the top four spots, individually or together. To be precise, they have a 36% chance of achieving it.
8. Tuesday’s loss to MI severely dented RCB’s chances of finishing in the top four, which dropped to 35.3%, and even that includes situations of teams tied for last place.
9. Ninth-placed SRH have less than a one in four chance (23.8%) of finishing in the top four on points, but this tournament has been so too that they can still finish tied for first place if they win all their remaining games .
10. Languishing at or near the bottom for most of the tournament, DC can still make the play-offs and even top. Their chances of making the top four are no higher than 22.7%, but even they can tie for fourth place.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
Let’s go through all 65,000 possible outcome combinations with 16 games remaining. We assume that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then look at how many of the melds put each team in a top four position for points. This gives us our probability number. To give a specific example, of the 65,536 possible result combinations, GT finishes first to fourth in points in all of them. This translates into a 100% chance. And in only 16 of these combinations are they even tied for fourth place. So, GT is fine. We do not take into account net rates or no results (NR) because predicting them in advance is impossible.


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