2023 IPL Playoff Race: One team out, 9 others in contention for 4 spots | Cricket News

The Delhi Capitals’ Sunday loss to the Punjab Kings officially ruled them out of the playoff race. They became the first team to be eliminated. All other 9 teams are mathematically still in contention for the four playoff spots, with Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings being favorites to secure a spot rather comfortably and Kolkata Knight Riders and Sunrisers Hyderabad standing to keep their chances rather slim to qualify.
With 11 matches left to play in the IPL 2023 group stage, there are over 2,000 possible result combinations left. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As things stand, two teams are almost certain to reach the play-offs, another is a favorite to do so and a fourth team has a better than even chance.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Saturday May 13 morning:
1. GT is already certain to finish in a top three position in terms of points. The lowest score they can finish is third. Their chances of being the sole leader are even higher at 53.4%. It’s still theoretically possible that they lose the NRR after finishing tied with more than one other team for third place, but that’s only a 2% chance.
2. CSK are also almost certain to finish in the top four with their chances of finishing in that group alone or together now at 97.6%.
3. MI are in third place and their chances of making the top four spots are at a very good 85.2%, although that includes scenarios where they are tied for fourth place.
4. In fourth place after Saturday’s victory, LSG are now more likely than not to make the top four with a 57.7% chance of making it. Again this includes scenarios where it’s only quarters united, some of them with multiple teams.
5. Currently in fifth place, Saturday’s results hurt RR’s chances of making the top four, which now sit at 40.6%, and even that includes situations where NRR could come into play.
6. Saturday’s PBKS win drops them to sixth, and as RRs, they now have a 40.6 percent chance of finishing in the top four on points, individually or together.
7. RCB are currently in seventh place and their chances of finishing in the top four are down to 23.4% and that too includes situations of teams level on points for last place.
8.KKR are now in eighth place and can finish no better than fourth tied with between one and five other teams. Their chances of achieving even that are only 7.6%.
9. 9th-placed SRH can, like KKR, tie for fourth place on points at best and their chances of making it are just 4.7%.
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over. They became the first team to be eliminated, following Saturday’s loss to PBKS.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We went through all 2,048 possible outcome combinations with 11 games remaining. We assumed that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then look at how many of the melds put each team in a top four position for points. This gives us our probability number. To give a specific example, of the 2,048 possible outcome combinations, DC does not finish in the top four in any of them. This translates into a 0% chance of making the top four. We do not take into consideration net rates or No Results (NR) because predicting them in advance is impossible.


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