That now leaves 3 vacant spots, with 7 teams still mathematically in the running, though CSK and MI are first to grab two of the three remaining playoff spots.
Of the 7 teams still in the competition, MI, LSG, RCB and PBKS still have 2 games to play, while CSK, RR and KKR still have one league game to play.
IPL POINTS TABLE | CALENDAR AND RESULTS
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Tuesday, May 16 morning, in 10 points:
With 8 games left to play in the league stage of IPL 2023, there are now 256 possible combinations of results. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As it stands, one team is sure to finish first or second, another is all but certain to make the play-offs, a third are favorites to do so and a fourth team has a nearly two-thirds chance. Among others, DC and SRH are now definitively out of the play-off race but the others are still mathematically in the running.
1. GTs, after winning on Monday, are guaranteed to finish first in terms of points individually or jointly. Their chances of being the sole leader increased to 87.5%. But even if they tie for first place, it can only be with another team, so they are sure to finish the league stage as number 1 or 2
2. CSK can no longer take first place or even draw, but are also almost certain to finish in the top four with the chances of finishing in that group alone or together now at 94.9%
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3. MI are in third place and their chances of making the top four spots are now at 89%, although this includes scenarios where they are tied for fourth place. They are the only team that can tie with GT for first place
4. Currently in fourth place, LSG can no longer aspire to first place, but has a 65.2% chance of reaching the top four. Again this includes scenarios where it’s only quarters united, some of them with multiple teams
5. RCB are in fifth place and their chances of finishing in the top four remain at 43.8%, even if this includes situations where teams are level on points for last place. They can no longer aspire to the top of the league
6. Currently ranked sixth, RR’s chances of making the top four remain at 18.8%. They can’t do better than the fourth draw, and that’s if they win the remaining game and other results fall into place
7. Even KKR, now in seventh place, cannot finish better than fourth place with one or five other teams. But their chances of achieving this goal are better than RR’s at 21.1%
8. PK is in eighth place, but an extra game in hand means her chances of finishing in the top four on points are better, at 43.8%, than RR or KKR, who are above them in classification
9. 9th-placed SRH are now officially out of the play-offs, like DC, with a best possible finish of 6th
10. DC’s shot at the play-offs is now officially over as well. They became the first team to be eliminated following Saturday’s loss to PK
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We went through all 256 possible outcome combinations with 8 games remaining. We assumed that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then looked at how many of the melds place each team in a top four position by points. This gives us our probability number. To give a specific example, out of the 256 possible result combinations, GT finishes in first place with 224 points. This translates into an 87.5% chance of being the sole leader at the end of the league stage. We don’t take into account net or No Outcomes execution rates because predicting them in advance is impossible.