A third team has now been eliminated from the playoff race this season. Punjab Kings 4 wicket loss to Rajasthan Royals saw them join Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad as the third team to be eliminated.
So what does this do to the points table? Leave 6 teams in contention for the 3 remaining playoff spots. While CSK and LSG are leading to secure a top 4 spot, anything can happen in the last 4 games left to play, with NRR likely to play a big part in deciding the fate of some teams.
There are still 16 possible combinations of results left. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As it stands, one team is guaranteed to finish top, two others are all but certain of making it to the play-offs, two others are strong contenders, leaving RR and KKR hoping they can sneak their way. The last three have already been eliminated.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Saturday, May 20 morning, in 8 points:
1.The GTs already have the certainty of being top of the table at the end of the group stage.
2. CSK’s chances of finishing in the top four on points are also very good at 93.8% with only one combination of results placing them in fifth place: LSG, MI and RCB have won their last matches and CSK have lost to the DC. They could also lose via NRR if they lose to DC, RCB beats GT, KKR beats LSG and MI beats SRH. This would leave CSK and LSG level on 15 points and NRR, which is currently slightly better for CSK, would decide fourth place.
3. Third-placed LSG are in a very similar situation with a 93.8% chance of being in the top four in terms of points. The only way they can finish fifth on points is if they lose their last game and RCB, CSK and MI win theirs. They could be in fourth place with CSK if they both lose their last games and KKR, MI and RCB win theirs, leaving NRR to decide the final play-off place.
4. Fourth-placed RCB’s chances of reaching the top four are now at 75%. They can finish fifth on points if they lose their last match against GT and MI win against SRH. They could lose via NRR in multiple scenarios, including two where they win their last game.
5. RR moved up to fifth after Friday’s victory but can only reach the play-offs via the NRR route as the most they can get is fourth place (25% chance). For that to happen they have to hope that SRH beats MI and GT beats RCB. The good news for them is that currently their NRR is better than two of the three teams they may be tied with – MI and KKR – and while RCB’s NRR is better now, one loss could change that.
6. MI’s situation in sixth place is a mirror image of RCB’s. They too have a 75% chance of being in the top four in points, but can finish fifth if they lose their last game to SRH and RCB beats GT. However, they are worse placed to tie for fourth due to a much lower NRR than they could tie, excluding KKR.
7. Seventh-placed KKR have a 12.5% chance of being in the top four and that too will result in a three-way or four-way tie. They will need to win their last game by a large margin to make up for their currently poor NRR. But they still need GT to beat RCB and SRH to beat MI.
8. Eighth place PBK extension they joined 9th and 10th place SRH and DC as teams out of the play-off race.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We went through all 16 possible outcome combinations with 4 games remaining. We assumed that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then looked at how many of the melds place each team in a top four position by points. This gave us our probability number. We do not take into consideration net rates or No Results (NR) because predicting them in advance is impossible.
So what does this do to the points table? Leave 6 teams in contention for the 3 remaining playoff spots. While CSK and LSG are leading to secure a top 4 spot, anything can happen in the last 4 games left to play, with NRR likely to play a big part in deciding the fate of some teams.
There are still 16 possible combinations of results left. TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate individual teams’ chances of making the playoffs. As it stands, one team is guaranteed to finish top, two others are all but certain of making it to the play-offs, two others are strong contenders, leaving RR and KKR hoping they can sneak their way. The last three have already been eliminated.
TOI’s Shankar Raghuraman does the math of the numbers to determine how the teams are doing as of Saturday, May 20 morning, in 8 points:
1.The GTs already have the certainty of being top of the table at the end of the group stage.
2. CSK’s chances of finishing in the top four on points are also very good at 93.8% with only one combination of results placing them in fifth place: LSG, MI and RCB have won their last matches and CSK have lost to the DC. They could also lose via NRR if they lose to DC, RCB beats GT, KKR beats LSG and MI beats SRH. This would leave CSK and LSG level on 15 points and NRR, which is currently slightly better for CSK, would decide fourth place.
3. Third-placed LSG are in a very similar situation with a 93.8% chance of being in the top four in terms of points. The only way they can finish fifth on points is if they lose their last game and RCB, CSK and MI win theirs. They could be in fourth place with CSK if they both lose their last games and KKR, MI and RCB win theirs, leaving NRR to decide the final play-off place.
4. Fourth-placed RCB’s chances of reaching the top four are now at 75%. They can finish fifth on points if they lose their last match against GT and MI win against SRH. They could lose via NRR in multiple scenarios, including two where they win their last game.
5. RR moved up to fifth after Friday’s victory but can only reach the play-offs via the NRR route as the most they can get is fourth place (25% chance). For that to happen they have to hope that SRH beats MI and GT beats RCB. The good news for them is that currently their NRR is better than two of the three teams they may be tied with – MI and KKR – and while RCB’s NRR is better now, one loss could change that.
6. MI’s situation in sixth place is a mirror image of RCB’s. They too have a 75% chance of being in the top four in points, but can finish fifth if they lose their last game to SRH and RCB beats GT. However, they are worse placed to tie for fourth due to a much lower NRR than they could tie, excluding KKR.
7. Seventh-placed KKR have a 12.5% chance of being in the top four and that too will result in a three-way or four-way tie. They will need to win their last game by a large margin to make up for their currently poor NRR. But they still need GT to beat RCB and SRH to beat MI.
8. Eighth place PBK extension they joined 9th and 10th place SRH and DC as teams out of the play-off race.
How do we calculate these probabilities:
We went through all 16 possible outcome combinations with 4 games remaining. We assumed that for each match, both sides’ chances of winning are equal. We then looked at how many of the melds place each team in a top four position by points. This gave us our probability number. We do not take into consideration net rates or No Results (NR) because predicting them in advance is impossible.
