The COP28 climate summit was thrown into uproar on Monday as a first draft of a climate pact suggested countries “reduce” fossil fuels – a watering down of a previous, stronger proposal to “phase out”.
The draft agreement, also known as the “Global Stocktake”, suggests a list of actions countries “could” take.
The contentious clause in question suggests countries: “Reduce both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science.”
Island nations were furious about the missing “phase out” and lack of deadlines attached – as rising sea levels driven by climate change eat away at their shores.
“We will not go silently to our watery graves,” John Silk, minister for natural resources from the Marshall Islands, told a packed crowd of reporters.
But fossil fuel producers who are resisting the stronger action, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq, will be buoyed by the caveats and qualifiers in the text, including use of the word “could”.
But the language could still frighten OPEC nations (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), who have been resisting an eventual end to fossil fuels, as both their production of oil and the demand from their consumers would have to fall.
Samoa’s environment minister Hon. Toeolesulusulu Cedric Pose Salesa Schuster, speaking on behalf of the AOSIS group of small island states, said it seemed some countries had enjoyed “preferential treatment” – in an apparent jibe at members of OPEC, of which host nation UAE is a member.
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at campaigners 350.org, said: “The COP28 draft text resembles a disjointed wish list, far from the stringent measures required to limit warming to 1.5C.
“The presidency, displaying a troubling lack of leadership, has notably weakened commitments to phasing out fossil fuels and promoting renewables.”
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The text suggests countries “could”:
(a) Triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030;
“(b) Rapidly phase down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation;
“(c) Accelerate efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilizing zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century;
“(d) Accelerate zero and low emissions technologies, including renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including carbon capture and utilisation and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production.
This would enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.
“(e) Reduce both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science.”
Mr Sieber said: “By framing actions as ‘could’ instead of ‘shall,’ and with weak language on short-term declines and renewable targets, this draft falls short.
“Nations committed to climate action must reject this weakened proposal, insisting on transformative changes for a meaningful impact on global warming.”
Earlier versions of the document were more of a shortlist of options, whereas today’s version is regarded as a first draft of a final deal from COP28.
