Conservative MPs demanding tougher legislation on the Rwanda plan are meeting in Westminster to discuss tactics as a crunch vote looms.
The prime minister is working to avert a mass rebellion and met with some of those threatening to shoot down the totemic legislation for breakfast in Downing Street on Tuesday morning.
Politics latest: PM battles to avoid potentially fatal rebellion
The meeting did little to win round Danny Kruger, co-founder of the New Conservatives – one of the main Tory factions with reservations about the plan.
He told the Commons during a debate on the legislation: “I regret we’ve got an unsatisfactory bill, I can’t undertake to support it tonight, I hope the government would agree to pull the bill and allow us to work with them and colleagues across the House to produce a better bill.”
The New Conservatives, alongside the the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) and three other right-wing groups that make up the Tory “five families”, are meeting in a parliamentary committee room this evening to decide on their next steps, with the prospect of a damaging revolt unless No 10 commits to amending the legislation.
Rwanda vote live – watch a special two-hour edition of Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge from 7pm
Around 29 Tory MPs need to vote against Mr Sunak for his bill to fail – while 57 abstentions would similarly see the opposition win.
Abstentions are more likely than MPs voting against the legislation at this stage, with Tory critics poised to push for amendments as the bill progresses.
However this would set up future parliamentary battles, given moderate Tories in the opposite wing of the party have said they will not support the bill if it becomes more hardline.
Tonight is not the final vote, but rather the first in the process of the bill’s route to becoming a law.
The proposed legislation is intended to address the Supreme Court’s concerns about the plan to send some asylum seekers who cross the English Channel to Rwanda rather than allowing them to attempt to stay in the UK.
Mr Sunak wants to use the legislation – which forms a treaty with Rwanda – to declare the central African nation safe.
He is also seeking to use it to force judges to ignore rulings from the European Court of Human Rights to stop flights leaving – although it will still allow individual appeals.
A Conservative Party source told Sky News that MPs were offered the chance to amend the law – but as long as it stays within the framework of the legislation.
A Downing Street source said: “The bill has been drafted with close attention to detail, with colleagues’ input helping to shape the legislation.
“The tests set for the bill have been met, and we will continue to listen to and engage with colleagues across the party as it passes through parliament. This bill will work and will do what we need it to do.”
The bill is also set to be debated in a committee of the whole house – meaning more MPs will have a chance to table changes than normal.
It is not clear how any amendments would be able to substantially change the proposal without leaving its current framework.
One MP who was at the breakfast said the prime minister told the group he would listen to ideas for “tightening” the bill but gave no specific commitments.
“I would love to know what he means by ‘tightening’ the bill,” they said.
Meanwhile Home Secretary James Cleverly said the legislation already “pushed at the edge of the envelope” on international law.
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During the lengthy debate on the bill in the Commons, the former immigration minister Robert Jenrick hinted that he would either abstain or vote with the bill by telling his colleagues “let’s make it better” – although it is understood he will vote against it if the government do not indicate they will address his concerns.
Mr Jenrick said that he wanted the bill to give ministers stronger protections to reject rule 39 orders, which are issued by the European Court of Human Rights – this is the order used to stop the first plane from heading to Rwanda.
There would be further complications from amendments due to the fact that the One Nation caucus of around 100 Tory MPs have said they would not support the bill if it means the UK breaking its international obligations.
The group’s chair, Damian Green, said last night that they “strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in any way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle”.
Sir Robert Buckland, a former justice secretary, said the relationship between the courts and parliament is being stretched to “breaking point”.
Mr Sunak will be meeting with caucus this afternoon in a bid to keep them on side.
Rwanda has also told the UK government it will withdraw from the treaty if the UK were to breach its “international obligations”.
Some Tory MPs on the right – like former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke – have called for Downing Street to pull the legislation to rework it.
But Number 10 have said the act will continue in its current form.
It appears the rebels are now figuring out how to proceed with the vote – which could be as early as 7pm.
One told Sky’s Political Editor Beth Rigby that the current act with no amendments would be a “straight choice between abstaining and voting against”.
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Another said that Mr Sunak sought to blame Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick for past failures – which apparently did not go down well.
Labour leader Sir Keir Stamer said today that he expects the government will win tonight’s vote – but if it fails Mr Sunak should call an election.
