The last decade yielded BJP perfect scores in Rajasthan. The party also rode a victory wave in the Dec 2023 assembly polls. However, it appears to be encountering some hurdles this time. From intra-party challenges to defections, debates over inadequate development, and anger over Agnipath and farmer protests, BJP may find it difficult to repeat its 25/25 performance a third time.Swati Mathur & Bhanu Pratap Singh look at nine seats where local factors make the going tough for the saffron party.
Churu
The turnout in Churu on April 19 was around 64%, second highest among the 12 seats that polled in phase one, and exceeding the state average by 6 percentage points. The contest evolved into a clash between Congress candidate Rahul Kaswan and BJP candidate’s supporter, ex-MLA Rajendra Rathore, turning it into a caste conflict between Jats and Rajputs. Kaswan, the incumbent BJP MP, was replaced by the saffron party with Paralympic gold medallist Devendra Jhajharia. Kaswan accused Rathore (both were in BJP then) of influencing this decision, as the latter had attributed his own defeat in the assembly elections four months earlier to the MP. Seizing the opportunity, Congress poached Kaswan and fielded him from Churu, and he directed most of his criticism towards Rathore rather than Jhajharia. There’s uncertainty over the poll outcome, despite PM Modi addressing a rally here.
Nagaur
Situated in the Jat heartland, Nagaur witnessed a fierce battle between rival factions of the Mirdha family, long-time political stalwarts in Rajasthan under the Congress banner. The feud, dating back to the 1970s, has intensified over the years, prompting the Jats to seek alternative leadership. This shift propelled Hanuman Beniwal, a former Mirdha supporter who now leads Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, in an alliance with Congress. Beniwal’s challenger is Jyoti Mirdha, who crossed over to BJP ahead of the 2023 assembly poll, which she lost. The contest in Nagaur, primarily between Jyoti and Beniwal, saw Harendra Mirdha, a Congress MLA, supporting Beniwal. The campaign highlighted generational divides, with Richpal, Jyoti’s uncle who also joined BJP, invoking nostalgia and Beniwal focusing on youth. Tensions even resulted in sporadic violence on polling day, April 19. The constituency recorded over 57% polling. In 2019, Beniwal had allied with BJP, defeating Jyoti — then with Congress.
Jhunjhunu
Jhunjhunu’s political landscape was long dominated by Congress’s Sis Ram Ola, a former Union minister who had a remarkable talent for remembering all his constituents by their first names. Ola won five consecutive parliamentary elections for Congress from 1996 to 2009. Following his passing in Dec 2013, BJP managed to clinch the Lok Sabha seat but faced challenges and had to change candidates in all subsequent elections. This time, the competition had intensified with Congress nominating Sis Ram’s son Brijendra Singh Ola, the current Jhunjhunu MLA. BJP has replaced incumbent MP Narendra Kumar with former legislator Shubhkaran Choudhary, who faced a backlash for a controversial remark about Rajputs, who are a significant support base for BJP. Polling on April 19 witnessed a turnout of 53%, prompting speculation on the reluctance of BJP’s core voters to engage in the electoral process.
Sikar
Congress and BJP have contested a neck-and-neck fight in this Jat-dominated seat, which is a part of the state’s semi-arid Shekhawati region. Sikar is one of the two seats in Rajasthan where INDIA has fielded a joint candidate. CPM’s Amra Ram is not only eyeing a revival of his own party’s fortunes, but also hoping to regain lost ground in the hotbed of farmer politics. INDIA is banking on anti-incumbency against the twoterm BJP MP Sumedhanand Saraswati. This is also a prestige seat for state Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra, who has lately emerged as the party’s strongest Jat leader in the state. INDIA is perceived to be on firmer ground as a result of his and Amra Ram’s personal popularity. Both have been at the forefront of the farmers’ agitation in the region. There’s also ground-level anger against the Agnipath scheme of short-term recruitment in a region that has a deep-rooted connect with the armed forces. Several coaching centres that prepared youngsters for army recruitment exams have shut, winding down economic activity, and dampening BJP’s chances.
Dausa
Traditionally ‘Pilot-ed’ by Congress, Dausa, which had swung BJP’s way in the last decade, is showing signs of change. This year’s Meena-vs-Meena clash — Congress has fielded five-time MLA and former state minister Murali Lal Meena against BJP’s ex-MLA and state minister Kanhaiya Lal Meena — is projected as a prestige battle for former deputy CM Sachin Pilot. Congress last won Dausa in 2004, when it elected Sachin Pilot at the age of 27. In 2009, the first polls to be held after delimitation, Kirori Lal Meena won as an Independent. In 2014 and in 2019, Harish Meena and Jaskaur Meena, respectively, won for BJP. Kirori Lal Meena has since moved to BJP and is a cabinet minister in the Bhajan Lal Sharma govt. With Pilot campaigning aggressively in Dausa and Kirori Lal Meena embarrassing BJP more than once by alleging corruption in govt schemes, local conditions appear to have changed, setting up a tight race to the finish.
Kota
Like BJP, Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla is hoping for a hat-trick. BJP turncoat Prahlad Gunjal, who recently switched to Congress, however, has skewed the playing field. Gunjal, a Gujjar who won twice on a BJP ticket from Kota North assembly seat, has been a staunch supporter of ex-CM Vasundhara Raje. In a constituency where Congress was struggling to find a suitable contender against Birla, Gunjal’s entry has set up in the ‘Hadauti’ region a pitched battle. Raje’s absence from BJP’s campaign is being seen as indirect support for Gunjal. With 20.9 lakh voters in Kota, Gunjal is targeting Congress’s traditional support base, particularly the 2.7 lakh Muslims, 2.3 lakh Meenas and over 2 lakh Brahmins. Though Gujjars have traditionally backed BJP, Gunjal’s defection, many believe, will fetch Congress a chunk of their votes. Moreover, Sachin Pilot has thrown in his weight behind Gunjal. Birla’s track record and local roots, though, put him in a formidable position. Also at play are Gunjal’s feud with Congress MLA Shanti Dhariwal and lack of support from a section of Congress workers.
Jodhpur
This clash may have been initially dismissed as loaded in favour of BJP’s Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. However, anti-incumbency after a 10-year tenure as MP, fraught relations with local legislators, and a Rajput challenger in the form of Congress’s Karan Singh Uchiyarda, has set up a tight contest for the Jal Shakti minister. Uchiyarda, contesting his first election, has centred his campaign around promises Shekhawat did not deliver on, espe cially piped water to the arid region’s homes. Ahead of polling on April 26, Shekhawat has sought to turn the contest into a fight to protect ‘sanatan dharma’ and secure international boundaries. The fight, however, will depend on which side the dominant Rajputs and the Bishnois vote. Though pollsters still put Shekhawat ahead, he may have to contend with a considerably thinner margin, with his challenger keeping him on his toes.
Barmer
Instead of the traditional Congress vs BJP battle, Barmer, in the middle of Thar desert, is set for a tripolar contest this time with the entry of 26-year-old Ravinder Bhati, who is contesting as an Independent. Bhati’s bite-sized ‘bhashans’ and swashbuckling style have not only enamoured youth, but also endeared traditionalists, mounting a tough challenge to BJP and Congress. BJP has renominated its sitting MP, Kailash Choudhary, while Congress has fielded Umedaram Beniwal, a recent convert from RLP. Bhati, the local Rajput, has challenged the two Jats and his ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatra’ has metamorphosed from an electoral campaign into a mass movement drawing massive crowds. Barmer has a mix of Jats, Rajputs, minorities, Scheduled Castes and other communities. Both Congress and BJP face challenges due to the significant influence of Jat leaders. The outcome remains to be seen.
Banswara
One of the most keenly contested seats, Banswara has witnessed dramatic ups and downs since the LS polls were announced. A five-monthold outfit — Bharat Adivasi Party — has taken the region by storm. Congress’s initial pick for the seat defected to BJP, and its subsequent candidate, Arvind Damor, refused to withdraw his name from the draw even though his party declared a last-minute alliance with BAP, leaving three key contenders in the fray.
The tight contest appears to be between INDIA/BAP’s Rajkumar Roat and BJP’s Mahendrajeet Malviya, the Congress turncoat. The tribaldominated seat has been at the centre of attention not only due to Congress’s errors, but because of PM Modi’s fiery speech last week where he accused Congress of planning to “snatch” from Hindu homes and redistribute it to Muslims. Though the statement was made in a constituency where families set considerable store by their silver, it seems to have found little traction, and issues that matter to youth are employment and improved infrastructure.
Churu
The turnout in Churu on April 19 was around 64%, second highest among the 12 seats that polled in phase one, and exceeding the state average by 6 percentage points. The contest evolved into a clash between Congress candidate Rahul Kaswan and BJP candidate’s supporter, ex-MLA Rajendra Rathore, turning it into a caste conflict between Jats and Rajputs. Kaswan, the incumbent BJP MP, was replaced by the saffron party with Paralympic gold medallist Devendra Jhajharia. Kaswan accused Rathore (both were in BJP then) of influencing this decision, as the latter had attributed his own defeat in the assembly elections four months earlier to the MP. Seizing the opportunity, Congress poached Kaswan and fielded him from Churu, and he directed most of his criticism towards Rathore rather than Jhajharia. There’s uncertainty over the poll outcome, despite PM Modi addressing a rally here.
Nagaur
Situated in the Jat heartland, Nagaur witnessed a fierce battle between rival factions of the Mirdha family, long-time political stalwarts in Rajasthan under the Congress banner. The feud, dating back to the 1970s, has intensified over the years, prompting the Jats to seek alternative leadership. This shift propelled Hanuman Beniwal, a former Mirdha supporter who now leads Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, in an alliance with Congress. Beniwal’s challenger is Jyoti Mirdha, who crossed over to BJP ahead of the 2023 assembly poll, which she lost. The contest in Nagaur, primarily between Jyoti and Beniwal, saw Harendra Mirdha, a Congress MLA, supporting Beniwal. The campaign highlighted generational divides, with Richpal, Jyoti’s uncle who also joined BJP, invoking nostalgia and Beniwal focusing on youth. Tensions even resulted in sporadic violence on polling day, April 19. The constituency recorded over 57% polling. In 2019, Beniwal had allied with BJP, defeating Jyoti — then with Congress.
Jhunjhunu
Jhunjhunu’s political landscape was long dominated by Congress’s Sis Ram Ola, a former Union minister who had a remarkable talent for remembering all his constituents by their first names. Ola won five consecutive parliamentary elections for Congress from 1996 to 2009. Following his passing in Dec 2013, BJP managed to clinch the Lok Sabha seat but faced challenges and had to change candidates in all subsequent elections. This time, the competition had intensified with Congress nominating Sis Ram’s son Brijendra Singh Ola, the current Jhunjhunu MLA. BJP has replaced incumbent MP Narendra Kumar with former legislator Shubhkaran Choudhary, who faced a backlash for a controversial remark about Rajputs, who are a significant support base for BJP. Polling on April 19 witnessed a turnout of 53%, prompting speculation on the reluctance of BJP’s core voters to engage in the electoral process.
Sikar
Congress and BJP have contested a neck-and-neck fight in this Jat-dominated seat, which is a part of the state’s semi-arid Shekhawati region. Sikar is one of the two seats in Rajasthan where INDIA has fielded a joint candidate. CPM’s Amra Ram is not only eyeing a revival of his own party’s fortunes, but also hoping to regain lost ground in the hotbed of farmer politics. INDIA is banking on anti-incumbency against the twoterm BJP MP Sumedhanand Saraswati. This is also a prestige seat for state Congress chief Govind Singh Dotasra, who has lately emerged as the party’s strongest Jat leader in the state. INDIA is perceived to be on firmer ground as a result of his and Amra Ram’s personal popularity. Both have been at the forefront of the farmers’ agitation in the region. There’s also ground-level anger against the Agnipath scheme of short-term recruitment in a region that has a deep-rooted connect with the armed forces. Several coaching centres that prepared youngsters for army recruitment exams have shut, winding down economic activity, and dampening BJP’s chances.
Dausa
Traditionally ‘Pilot-ed’ by Congress, Dausa, which had swung BJP’s way in the last decade, is showing signs of change. This year’s Meena-vs-Meena clash — Congress has fielded five-time MLA and former state minister Murali Lal Meena against BJP’s ex-MLA and state minister Kanhaiya Lal Meena — is projected as a prestige battle for former deputy CM Sachin Pilot. Congress last won Dausa in 2004, when it elected Sachin Pilot at the age of 27. In 2009, the first polls to be held after delimitation, Kirori Lal Meena won as an Independent. In 2014 and in 2019, Harish Meena and Jaskaur Meena, respectively, won for BJP. Kirori Lal Meena has since moved to BJP and is a cabinet minister in the Bhajan Lal Sharma govt. With Pilot campaigning aggressively in Dausa and Kirori Lal Meena embarrassing BJP more than once by alleging corruption in govt schemes, local conditions appear to have changed, setting up a tight race to the finish.
Kota
Like BJP, Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla is hoping for a hat-trick. BJP turncoat Prahlad Gunjal, who recently switched to Congress, however, has skewed the playing field. Gunjal, a Gujjar who won twice on a BJP ticket from Kota North assembly seat, has been a staunch supporter of ex-CM Vasundhara Raje. In a constituency where Congress was struggling to find a suitable contender against Birla, Gunjal’s entry has set up in the ‘Hadauti’ region a pitched battle. Raje’s absence from BJP’s campaign is being seen as indirect support for Gunjal. With 20.9 lakh voters in Kota, Gunjal is targeting Congress’s traditional support base, particularly the 2.7 lakh Muslims, 2.3 lakh Meenas and over 2 lakh Brahmins. Though Gujjars have traditionally backed BJP, Gunjal’s defection, many believe, will fetch Congress a chunk of their votes. Moreover, Sachin Pilot has thrown in his weight behind Gunjal. Birla’s track record and local roots, though, put him in a formidable position. Also at play are Gunjal’s feud with Congress MLA Shanti Dhariwal and lack of support from a section of Congress workers.
Jodhpur
This clash may have been initially dismissed as loaded in favour of BJP’s Gajendra Singh Shekhawat. However, anti-incumbency after a 10-year tenure as MP, fraught relations with local legislators, and a Rajput challenger in the form of Congress’s Karan Singh Uchiyarda, has set up a tight contest for the Jal Shakti minister. Uchiyarda, contesting his first election, has centred his campaign around promises Shekhawat did not deliver on, espe cially piped water to the arid region’s homes. Ahead of polling on April 26, Shekhawat has sought to turn the contest into a fight to protect ‘sanatan dharma’ and secure international boundaries. The fight, however, will depend on which side the dominant Rajputs and the Bishnois vote. Though pollsters still put Shekhawat ahead, he may have to contend with a considerably thinner margin, with his challenger keeping him on his toes.
Barmer
Instead of the traditional Congress vs BJP battle, Barmer, in the middle of Thar desert, is set for a tripolar contest this time with the entry of 26-year-old Ravinder Bhati, who is contesting as an Independent. Bhati’s bite-sized ‘bhashans’ and swashbuckling style have not only enamoured youth, but also endeared traditionalists, mounting a tough challenge to BJP and Congress. BJP has renominated its sitting MP, Kailash Choudhary, while Congress has fielded Umedaram Beniwal, a recent convert from RLP. Bhati, the local Rajput, has challenged the two Jats and his ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatra’ has metamorphosed from an electoral campaign into a mass movement drawing massive crowds. Barmer has a mix of Jats, Rajputs, minorities, Scheduled Castes and other communities. Both Congress and BJP face challenges due to the significant influence of Jat leaders. The outcome remains to be seen.
Banswara
One of the most keenly contested seats, Banswara has witnessed dramatic ups and downs since the LS polls were announced. A five-monthold outfit — Bharat Adivasi Party — has taken the region by storm. Congress’s initial pick for the seat defected to BJP, and its subsequent candidate, Arvind Damor, refused to withdraw his name from the draw even though his party declared a last-minute alliance with BAP, leaving three key contenders in the fray.
The tight contest appears to be between INDIA/BAP’s Rajkumar Roat and BJP’s Mahendrajeet Malviya, the Congress turncoat. The tribaldominated seat has been at the centre of attention not only due to Congress’s errors, but because of PM Modi’s fiery speech last week where he accused Congress of planning to “snatch” from Hindu homes and redistribute it to Muslims. Though the statement was made in a constituency where families set considerable store by their silver, it seems to have found little traction, and issues that matter to youth are employment and improved infrastructure.
