Russian forces will soon be at their last reserves of fuel and unable to transport troops to Ukraine after the crippling attack on the Kerch Bridge between Crimea and Russia, analysts say.
“If we’re talking about the ability to maneuver, that is to say drive, I think we’re talking about a few days to very short weeks of supply,” intelligence analyst Forbes McKenzie told Sky News .
The Ukrainians degraded Russian logistics with well-targeted artillery and HIMARS rocket attacks, but the Attack on the Kerch Bridge left the Russians even more exposed.
They will soon be unable to move their troops, observers say, which will put them in serious trouble if the Ukrainians continue to advance.
Mr McKenzie said: “Can they stand up and fight? They could probably keep it going through the winter, but if Ukraine has Russia on the move, that means they dominate the game. space, push them back, force the Russians to maneuver and there is no diesel to maneuver the armor, most likely the armor will be left in place.”
President Vladimir Putin will have hoped his missile attack across Ukraine today projected an image of strength. They are interpreted in the West as quite the opposite. The act of an increasingly desperate commander running out of options.
Mr Putin warned today that the missile attacks could be repeated if Ukraine proceeds no more “terrorist” attacks like the one on the Kerch Bridge. But Western military analysts doubt his ability to do so.
Long-range precision-guided weapons are expensive to produce, and Russia has run out of much of its supplies. Russia has also bolstered its arsenal with Shaheed drones supplied by Iran.
But they too are exhausted. Ukraine managed to locate the warehouses where they are stored and destroy them. Both forms of ammunition are limited resources.
The Russian missile attacks follow a series of retreats and defeats of their ground forces.
If the Ukrainians are able to move fast enough and push the Russians back fast enough, they could force them to drop their armor.
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“We could see the Ukrainians stealing all of their armored capability,” says McKenzie.
It would be a humiliating outcome for President Putin that would pose an existential threat. He cannot afford to appear weak or fail in this war.
Its army is in retreat and increasingly threatened by Ukrainian advances and now, Western observers say, starved for logistics.
His position seems increasingly desperate and he is running out of time.